PAGASA's latest forecast, issued May 15, pins Metro Manila's high at 34°C on May 17 amid a high pressure ridge promoting fair skies with only 20% rain chance, yet trader consensus spreads implied probabilities evenly across 34–36°C due to persistent forecast-model divergence and urban heat island effects amplifying peaks by 1–2°C in Quezon City stations. Recent actuals, like 34.4°C on May 14, slightly outpaced predictions amid intense solar insolation during the dry season, while light easterly winds and isolated thunderstorms introduce uncertainty—clearer skies could push toward 36°C, thicker clouds toward 33°C. Sub-seasonal outlooks signal warmer-than-average conditions through May 20; watch PAGASA's May 16 update for refined guidance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日馬尼拉的最高溫度?
5月17日馬尼拉的最高溫度?
34°C 34%
35°C 30%
36°C 11%
33°C 7%
29°C或以下
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
3%
32°C
5%
33°C
7%
34°C
34%
35°C
30%
36°C
11%
37°C
4%
38°C
3%
39°C或更高
1%
34°C 34%
35°C 30%
36°C 11%
33°C 7%
29°C或以下
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
3%
32°C
5%
33°C
7%
34°C
34%
35°C
30%
36°C
11%
37°C
4%
38°C
3%
39°C或更高
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
PAGASA's latest forecast, issued May 15, pins Metro Manila's high at 34°C on May 17 amid a high pressure ridge promoting fair skies with only 20% rain chance, yet trader consensus spreads implied probabilities evenly across 34–36°C due to persistent forecast-model divergence and urban heat island effects amplifying peaks by 1–2°C in Quezon City stations. Recent actuals, like 34.4°C on May 14, slightly outpaced predictions amid intense solar insolation during the dry season, while light easterly winds and isolated thunderstorms introduce uncertainty—clearer skies could push toward 36°C, thicker clouds toward 33°C. Sub-seasonal outlooks signal warmer-than-average conditions through May 20; watch PAGASA's May 16 update for refined guidance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions