Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF point to a high in the upper 80s to low 90s for Austin on May 17, driving the 88°F-or-higher outcome to a 67.5% implied probability. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over Central Texas is promoting subsidence that suppresses cloud cover and maximizes solar heating, while south-southeasterly flow advects warm, moist Gulf air above the May climatological average high near 85–87°F. Recent thinning of high clouds over the past 24–48 hours has further amplified daytime warming potential, though any lingering afternoon cumulus or isolated showers could still limit the peak. Traders are closely watching the next NWS update and fresh model runs for refinements ahead of the official Austin-Bergstrom reading.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日奧斯汀的最高溫度？
5月17日奧斯汀的最高溫度？
88°F or higher 68%
86-87°F 17%
84-85°F 7.0%
82-83°F 1.3%
最新
$12,280 交易量
最新
$12,280 交易量
2026-05-17
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
17%
88°F or higher
68%
88°F or higher 68%
86-87°F 17%
84-85°F 7.0%
82-83°F 1.3%
最新
$12,280 交易量
最新
$12,280 交易量
2026-05-17
69°F or below
$506 交易量
<1%
70-71°F
$3,328 交易量
<1%
72-73°F
$4,628 交易量
<1%
74-75°F
$520 交易量
<1%
76-77°F
$521 交易量
<1%
78-79°F
$385 交易量
<1%
80-81°F
$526 交易量
1%
82-83°F
$310 交易量
1%
84-85°F
$160 交易量
7%
86-87°F
$314 交易量
17%
88°F or higher
$1,111 交易量
68%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF point to a high in the upper 80s to low 90s for Austin on May 17, driving the 88°F-or-higher outcome to a 67.5% implied probability. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over Central Texas is promoting subsidence that suppresses cloud cover and maximizes solar heating, while south-southeasterly flow advects warm, moist Gulf air above the May climatological average high near 85–87°F. Recent thinning of high clouds over the past 24–48 hours has further amplified daytime warming potential, though any lingering afternoon cumulus or isolated showers could still limit the peak. Traders are closely watching the next NWS update and fresh model runs for refinements ahead of the official Austin-Bergstrom reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
交易量
$12,280結束日期
2026-05-17市場開放時間
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF point to a high in the upper 80s to low 90s for Austin on May 17, driving the 88°F-or-higher outcome to a 67.5% implied probability. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over Central Texas is promoting subsidence that suppresses cloud cover and maximizes solar heating, while south-southeasterly flow advects warm, moist Gulf air above the May climatological average high near 85–87°F. Recent thinning of high clouds over the past 24–48 hours has further amplified daytime warming potential, though any lingering afternoon cumulus or isolated showers could still limit the peak. Traders are closely watching the next NWS update and fresh model runs for refinements ahead of the official Austin-Bergstrom reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$12,280結束日期
2026-05-17市場開放時間
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETCurrent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF point to a high in the upper 80s to low 90s for Austin on May 17, driving the 88°F-or-higher outcome to a 67.5% implied probability. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over Central Texas is promoting subsidence that suppresses cloud cover and maximizes solar heating, while south-southeasterly flow advects warm, moist Gulf air above the May climatological average high near 85–87°F. Recent thinning of high clouds over the past 24–48 hours has further amplified daytime warming potential, though any lingering afternoon cumulus or isolated showers could still limit the peak. Traders are closely watching the next NWS update and fresh model runs for refinements ahead of the official Austin-Bergstrom reading.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions