Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability that no Ebola pandemic will occur in 2026, reflecting the absence of sustained human-to-human transmission chains and effective containment by health authorities. Ebola virus disease spreads primarily through direct contact with bodily fluids, with historical outbreaks largely confined to Central and West Africa under routine WHO and CDC surveillance. Recent case reports remain sporadic and localized, consistent with baseline incidence rather than epidemic growth, while approved vaccines and rapid response protocols have repeatedly limited amplification. Scientific understanding of filovirus dynamics, including low airborne transmissibility, supports this positioning. A realistic scenario that could shift odds involves emergence of a novel strain with enhanced respiratory spread in an under-monitored conflict zone, though current epidemiological indicators show no such signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Ebola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
最新
最新
2026-12-31
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability that no Ebola pandemic will occur in 2026, reflecting the absence of sustained human-to-human transmission chains and effective containment by health authorities. Ebola virus disease spreads primarily through direct contact with bodily fluids, with historical outbreaks largely confined to Central and West Africa under routine WHO and CDC surveillance. Recent case reports remain sporadic and localized, consistent with baseline incidence rather than epidemic growth, while approved vaccines and rapid response protocols have repeatedly limited amplification. Scientific understanding of filovirus dynamics, including low airborne transmissibility, supports this positioning. A realistic scenario that could shift odds involves emergence of a novel strain with enhanced respiratory spread in an under-monitored conflict zone, though current epidemiological indicators show no such signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
交易量
$285結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability that no Ebola pandemic will occur in 2026, reflecting the absence of sustained human-to-human transmission chains and effective containment by health authorities. Ebola virus disease spreads primarily through direct contact with bodily fluids, with historical outbreaks largely confined to Central and West Africa under routine WHO and CDC surveillance. Recent case reports remain sporadic and localized, consistent with baseline incidence rather than epidemic growth, while approved vaccines and rapid response protocols have repeatedly limited amplification. Scientific understanding of filovirus dynamics, including low airborne transmissibility, supports this positioning. A realistic scenario that could shift odds involves emergence of a novel strain with enhanced respiratory spread in an under-monitored conflict zone, though current epidemiological indicators show no such signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$285結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability that no Ebola pandemic will occur in 2026, reflecting the absence of sustained human-to-human transmission chains and effective containment by health authorities. Ebola virus disease spreads primarily through direct contact with bodily fluids, with historical outbreaks largely confined to Central and West Africa under routine WHO and CDC surveillance. Recent case reports remain sporadic and localized, consistent with baseline incidence rather than epidemic growth, while approved vaccines and rapid response protocols have repeatedly limited amplification. Scientific understanding of filovirus dynamics, including low airborne transmissibility, supports this positioning. A realistic scenario that could shift odds involves emergence of a novel strain with enhanced respiratory spread in an under-monitored conflict zone, though current epidemiological indicators show no such signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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