Steady global tectonic activity along major fault zones continues to drive typical rates of moderate seismicity, positioning outcomes of 6–9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater as the most likely for May 18–24. Historical USGS data indicate roughly 10–15 such events occur worldwide each week on average, with early May 2026 already recording multiple M5.5+ quakes including a magnitude 6.0 in the Philippines and activity near the Kermadec Islands. Current monitoring shows no major aftershock sequences or volcanic influences elevating risk beyond background levels, though model consensus on plate boundary stress accumulation supports the market’s leading >9 outcome at 36%. Ongoing USGS real-time updates through the week could shift probabilities if new seismic clusters emerge.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 18 - May 24?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 18 - May 24?
>9 36%
6 15%
9 15%
5 13%
最新
最新
2026-05-24
≤3
7%
4
11%
5
13%
6
15%
7
13%
8
13%
9
15%
>9
36%
>9 36%
6 15%
9 15%
5 13%
最新
最新
2026-05-24
≤3
$728 交易量
7%
4
$571 交易量
11%
5
$693 交易量
13%
6
$637 交易量
15%
7
$564 交易量
13%
8
$564 交易量
13%
9
$558 交易量
15%
>9
$1,650 交易量
36%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Steady global tectonic activity along major fault zones continues to drive typical rates of moderate seismicity, positioning outcomes of 6–9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater as the most likely for May 18–24. Historical USGS data indicate roughly 10–15 such events occur worldwide each week on average, with early May 2026 already recording multiple M5.5+ quakes including a magnitude 6.0 in the Philippines and activity near the Kermadec Islands. Current monitoring shows no major aftershock sequences or volcanic influences elevating risk beyond background levels, though model consensus on plate boundary stress accumulation supports the market’s leading >9 outcome at 36%. Ongoing USGS real-time updates through the week could shift probabilities if new seismic clusters emerge.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： May 15, 2026, 4:40 PM ET
交易量
$5,966結束日期
2026-05-24市場開放時間
May 15, 2026, 4:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Steady global tectonic activity along major fault zones continues to drive typical rates of moderate seismicity, positioning outcomes of 6–9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater as the most likely for May 18–24. Historical USGS data indicate roughly 10–15 such events occur worldwide each week on average, with early May 2026 already recording multiple M5.5+ quakes including a magnitude 6.0 in the Philippines and activity near the Kermadec Islands. Current monitoring shows no major aftershock sequences or volcanic influences elevating risk beyond background levels, though model consensus on plate boundary stress accumulation supports the market’s leading >9 outcome at 36%. Ongoing USGS real-time updates through the week could shift probabilities if new seismic clusters emerge.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$5,966結束日期
2026-05-24市場開放時間
May 15, 2026, 4:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Steady global tectonic activity along major fault zones continues to drive typical rates of moderate seismicity, positioning outcomes of 6–9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater as the most likely for May 18–24. Historical USGS data indicate roughly 10–15 such events occur worldwide each week on average, with early May 2026 already recording multiple M5.5+ quakes including a magnitude 6.0 in the Philippines and activity near the Kermadec Islands. Current monitoring shows no major aftershock sequences or volcanic influences elevating risk beyond background levels, though model consensus on plate boundary stress accumulation supports the market’s leading >9 outcome at 36%. Ongoing USGS real-time updates through the week could shift probabilities if new seismic clusters emerge.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions