Recent National Weather Service model runs have introduced significant uncertainty into Miami’s minimum temperature outlook for May 21, with ensemble guidance showing a broad spread driven by variable steering flow and the potential for either cooler northerly advection or persistent subtropical high pressure. This forecast divergence explains the nearly even market-implied odds between sub-74 °F outcomes and those exceeding 90 °F, as traders weigh the strength of any approaching frontal boundary against typical May climatology where overnight lows average near 73 °F. Upcoming updates from NOAA’s Global Forecast System and local Miami offices will likely narrow the range as the date nears.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月21日邁阿密的最低溫度?
華氏73度或以下 43%
92°F或更高 41%
78-79°F 26%
76-77°F 18%
華氏73度或以下
43%
74-75°F
16%
76-77°F
18%
78-79°F
26%
80-81°F
18%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
15%
88-89°F
12%
90-91°F
11%
92°F或更高
41%
華氏73度或以下 43%
92°F或更高 41%
78-79°F 26%
76-77°F 18%
華氏73度或以下
43%
74-75°F
16%
76-77°F
18%
78-79°F
26%
80-81°F
18%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
15%
88-89°F
12%
90-91°F
11%
92°F或更高
41%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent National Weather Service model runs have introduced significant uncertainty into Miami’s minimum temperature outlook for May 21, with ensemble guidance showing a broad spread driven by variable steering flow and the potential for either cooler northerly advection or persistent subtropical high pressure. This forecast divergence explains the nearly even market-implied odds between sub-74 °F outcomes and those exceeding 90 °F, as traders weigh the strength of any approaching frontal boundary against typical May climatology where overnight lows average near 73 °F. Upcoming updates from NOAA’s Global Forecast System and local Miami offices will likely narrow the range as the date nears.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions