Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a daytime maximum near 24°C for May 17, driven by stable atmospheric conditions and limited warming from prevailing winds and cloud cover. This aligns with the seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures overall, yet current model consensus and observational data point to modest highs rather than the stronger warming typical of late-spring patterns influenced by ENSO trends. Traders have priced 24°C as the dominant outcome at 73.5% implied probability because revisions to short-term guidance have reduced the chance of reaching 26°C or higher, while historical May averages around 27–29°C provide context for why lower thresholds now dominate. Upcoming evening observations from official stations will confirm the final maximum and resolve the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日香港最高溫度?
24°C 74.2%
25°C 20%
26°C 5%
27°C 1.4%
$62,988 交易量
$62,988 交易量
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
74%
25°C
20%
26°C
5%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 74.2%
25°C 20%
26°C 5%
27°C 1.4%
$62,988 交易量
$62,988 交易量
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
74%
25°C
20%
26°C
5%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a daytime maximum near 24°C for May 17, driven by stable atmospheric conditions and limited warming from prevailing winds and cloud cover. This aligns with the seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures overall, yet current model consensus and observational data point to modest highs rather than the stronger warming typical of late-spring patterns influenced by ENSO trends. Traders have priced 24°C as the dominant outcome at 73.5% implied probability because revisions to short-term guidance have reduced the chance of reaching 26°C or higher, while historical May averages around 27–29°C provide context for why lower thresholds now dominate. Upcoming evening observations from official stations will confirm the final maximum and resolve the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions