Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) show strong consensus for a daily maximum of 26–27 °C in Shanghai on May 17, with slightly higher probability mass on 26 °C. This narrow spread reflects stable springtime synoptic conditions over eastern China, including moderate southwesterly flow and limited cloud cover that support modest daytime warming without significant moisture advection. Historical May climatology places typical highs near 24–26 °C, so current model guidance sits slightly above average but well within seasonal norms. Traders have priced in the remaining uncertainty from potential minor timing shifts in frontal boundaries or local urban heat-island effects, keeping adjacent outcomes viable until final observational data resolve the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日上海最高溫度?
26°C 35%
27°C 29%
25°C 16%
28°C 13%
$14,616 交易量
$14,616 交易量
21°C或以下
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
16%
26°C
35%
27°C
29%
28°C
13%
29°C
3%
30°C
1%
31°C或更高
<1%
26°C 35%
27°C 29%
25°C 16%
28°C 13%
$14,616 交易量
$14,616 交易量
21°C或以下
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
16%
26°C
35%
27°C
29%
28°C
13%
29°C
3%
30°C
1%
31°C或更高
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) show strong consensus for a daily maximum of 26–27 °C in Shanghai on May 17, with slightly higher probability mass on 26 °C. This narrow spread reflects stable springtime synoptic conditions over eastern China, including moderate southwesterly flow and limited cloud cover that support modest daytime warming without significant moisture advection. Historical May climatology places typical highs near 24–26 °C, so current model guidance sits slightly above average but well within seasonal norms. Traders have priced in the remaining uncertainty from potential minor timing shifts in frontal boundaries or local urban heat-island effects, keeping adjacent outcomes viable until final observational data resolve the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions