Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 45% probability for Miami's lowest temperature on May 17 at 78-79°F, closely tracking the National Weather Service's latest guidance and ensemble model runs forecasting an overnight low near 78°F under a dominant subtropical high pressure ridge. This positioning stems from recent clear skies and light southeast winds around 5-10 mph, which promote limited radiative cooling while high dewpoints in the mid-70s°F—elevated by persistent ocean influence and urban heat at Miami International Airport—prevent sharper drops. The past 48 hours logged similar lows around 78°F amid dry conditions, with no cold fronts inbound. Lower bins like 76-77°F (18%) reflect outlier cooler ensemble members, but uncertainty persists from potential isolated evening showers; watch 00Z GFS/ECMWF updates and NWS refinements on May 16 for shifts ahead of resolution via official ASOS observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月17日邁阿密的最低溫度?
5月17日邁阿密的最低溫度?
78-79°F 41%
76-77°F 18%
74-75°F 14%
80-81°F 14%
73°F或以下
4%
74-75°F
14%
76-77°F
18%
78-79°F
41%
80-81°F
14%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F或以上
<1%
78-79°F 41%
76-77°F 18%
74-75°F 14%
80-81°F 14%
73°F或以下
4%
74-75°F
14%
76-77°F
18%
78-79°F
41%
80-81°F
14%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F或以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 45% probability for Miami's lowest temperature on May 17 at 78-79°F, closely tracking the National Weather Service's latest guidance and ensemble model runs forecasting an overnight low near 78°F under a dominant subtropical high pressure ridge. This positioning stems from recent clear skies and light southeast winds around 5-10 mph, which promote limited radiative cooling while high dewpoints in the mid-70s°F—elevated by persistent ocean influence and urban heat at Miami International Airport—prevent sharper drops. The past 48 hours logged similar lows around 78°F amid dry conditions, with no cold fronts inbound. Lower bins like 76-77°F (18%) reflect outlier cooler ensemble members, but uncertainty persists from potential isolated evening showers; watch 00Z GFS/ECMWF updates and NWS refinements on May 16 for shifts ahead of resolution via official ASOS observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions