Tight clustering in short-range numerical weather prediction models from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), ECMWF, and GFS drives the near-even market-implied odds for Ankara's high temperature at Esenboğa International Airport today, with MGM guidance pinpointing 17°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds suppressing peak heating. Subtle forecast divergences—primarily in afternoon cloud cover timing and boundary layer mixing—differentiate the leading 18°C (36%) and 17°C (35%) outcomes from 16°C (26.5%), as northerly flow ushers cooler continental polar air following yesterday's 22°C high. This setup falls below May's 22°C climatological average amid typical spring variability. Real-time METAR observations through late afternoon and final model updates will likely resolve trader uncertainty before market close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Ankara on May 15?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 15?
17°C 37%
18°C 33%
16°C 27%
19°C 5%
$27,364 交易量
$27,364 交易量
2026-05-15
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
2%
16°C
27%
17°C
37%
18°C
33%
19°C
5%
20°C
1%
21°C or higher
1%
17°C 37%
18°C 33%
16°C 27%
19°C 5%
$27,364 交易量
$27,364 交易量
2026-05-15
12°C
$3,526 交易量
<1%
13°C
$1,438 交易量
<1%
14°C
$3,628 交易量
<1%
15°C
$2,367 交易量
2%
16°C
$2,291 交易量
27%
17°C
$1,931 交易量
37%
18°C
$2,451 交易量
33%
19°C
$2,424 交易量
5%
20°C
$3,103 交易量
1%
21°C or higher
$3,430 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Tight clustering in short-range numerical weather prediction models from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), ECMWF, and GFS drives the near-even market-implied odds for Ankara's high temperature at Esenboğa International Airport today, with MGM guidance pinpointing 17°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds suppressing peak heating. Subtle forecast divergences—primarily in afternoon cloud cover timing and boundary layer mixing—differentiate the leading 18°C (36%) and 17°C (35%) outcomes from 16°C (26.5%), as northerly flow ushers cooler continental polar air following yesterday's 22°C high. This setup falls below May's 22°C climatological average amid typical spring variability. Real-time METAR observations through late afternoon and final model updates will likely resolve trader uncertainty before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
交易量
$27,364結束日期
2026-05-15市場開放時間
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Tight clustering in short-range numerical weather prediction models from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), ECMWF, and GFS drives the near-even market-implied odds for Ankara's high temperature at Esenboğa International Airport today, with MGM guidance pinpointing 17°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds suppressing peak heating. Subtle forecast divergences—primarily in afternoon cloud cover timing and boundary layer mixing—differentiate the leading 18°C (36%) and 17°C (35%) outcomes from 16°C (26.5%), as northerly flow ushers cooler continental polar air following yesterday's 22°C high. This setup falls below May's 22°C climatological average amid typical spring variability. Real-time METAR observations through late afternoon and final model updates will likely resolve trader uncertainty before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$27,364結束日期
2026-05-15市場開放時間
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETTight clustering in short-range numerical weather prediction models from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), ECMWF, and GFS drives the near-even market-implied odds for Ankara's high temperature at Esenboğa International Airport today, with MGM guidance pinpointing 17°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds suppressing peak heating. Subtle forecast divergences—primarily in afternoon cloud cover timing and boundary layer mixing—differentiate the leading 18°C (36%) and 17°C (35%) outcomes from 16°C (26.5%), as northerly flow ushers cooler continental polar air following yesterday's 22°C high. This setup falls below May's 22°C climatological average amid typical spring variability. Real-time METAR observations through late afternoon and final model updates will likely resolve trader uncertainty before market close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions