Recent short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration indicate Seoul will likely experience daytime highs of 25–28°C on May 18, driven by a ridge of high pressure advecting warmer southerly air across the Korean Peninsula. This aligns with the market-implied 59.5% probability for 25°C or higher, as late-May climatology shows average maxima rising toward 24°C amid seasonal warming, with current conditions running 2–4°C above the long-term baseline. Model consensus from NOAA and regional ensembles shows limited disagreement on land temperatures, though minor cloud cover variations could cap peaks near 24°C. Traders are monitoring the next KMA update for any shifts in the 48-hour window before resolution, when official observations will determine the exact daily maximum.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月18日首爾最高溫度?
25°C or higher 58%
24°C 24%
23°C 10%
22°C 4.0%
$23,620 交易量
$23,620 交易量
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
4%
23°C
10%
24°C
24%
25°C or higher
58%
25°C or higher 58%
24°C 24%
23°C 10%
22°C 4.0%
$23,620 交易量
$23,620 交易量
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
4%
23°C
10%
24°C
24%
25°C or higher
58%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration indicate Seoul will likely experience daytime highs of 25–28°C on May 18, driven by a ridge of high pressure advecting warmer southerly air across the Korean Peninsula. This aligns with the market-implied 59.5% probability for 25°C or higher, as late-May climatology shows average maxima rising toward 24°C amid seasonal warming, with current conditions running 2–4°C above the long-term baseline. Model consensus from NOAA and regional ensembles shows limited disagreement on land temperatures, though minor cloud cover variations could cap peaks near 24°C. Traders are monitoring the next KMA update for any shifts in the 48-hour window before resolution, when official observations will determine the exact daily maximum.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions