Strong trader consensus against an Ebola emergency by June 30 rests on the May 15 confirmation of a localized Bundibugyo-strain outbreak in DRC’s Ituri Province, where Africa CDC and WHO report 246 suspected cases and 65–80 deaths, with only 13 laboratory-confirmed infections. Rapid regional coordination, cross-border surveillance, and contact-tracing efforts—building on DRC’s experience containing its prior 16 outbreaks—have limited spread despite security challenges and population movement near the Uganda border. Historical data show most non-Zaire Ebola events remain contained without reaching Public Health Emergency of International Concern thresholds. While accelerated transmission or undetected urban clusters could prompt faster escalation, current epidemiological indicators and active containment make a major declaration before late June unlikely.