Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.5% implied probability to a highest temperature of 18°C at Milan Malpensa International Airport on May 14, reflecting the latest ARPA Lombardia forecast of predominantly cloudy skies, morning showers, and afternoon thunderstorms from a sharp pressure drop and unstable frontal system. This setup limits solar heating and daytime warming, with models like those from AccuWeather aligning at around 18–19°C maxima amid a yellow alert for severe weather. Warmer outcomes at 11.5% for 19°C and 1.8% for 20°C+ carry low odds due to persistent cloud cover suppressing typical May highs near 22°C. Real-time observations from airport sensors will confirm the peak as the day progresses, with uncertainty in exact convective timing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Milan on May 14?
Highest temperature in Milan on May 14?
18°C 91%
19°C 6.8%
20°C or higher 1.3%
$55,520 交易量
$55,520 交易量
18°C
91%
19°C
7%
20°C or higher
1%
18°C 91%
19°C 6.8%
20°C or higher 1.3%
$55,520 交易量
$55,520 交易量
18°C
91%
19°C
7%
20°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 12, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.5% implied probability to a highest temperature of 18°C at Milan Malpensa International Airport on May 14, reflecting the latest ARPA Lombardia forecast of predominantly cloudy skies, morning showers, and afternoon thunderstorms from a sharp pressure drop and unstable frontal system. This setup limits solar heating and daytime warming, with models like those from AccuWeather aligning at around 18–19°C maxima amid a yellow alert for severe weather. Warmer outcomes at 11.5% for 19°C and 1.8% for 20°C+ carry low odds due to persistent cloud cover suppressing typical May highs near 22°C. Real-time observations from airport sensors will confirm the peak as the day progresses, with uncertainty in exact convective timing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions