Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 28°C at 100% implied probability for Wuhan's highest temperature on May 14, driven by observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) station at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, which recorded a peak of 28°C amid humid conditions with partial cloud cover limiting further solar heating. Mid-May climatology supports this, with average highs around 26–28°C and recent daily patterns showing peaks in the late afternoon before evening cooling; forecast models from AccuWeather and others align at 27–28°C (81°F). Realistic challenges include an improbable late-day clearing boosting insolation to 29°C or a data revision, but with the diurnal cycle advancing and no strong high-pressure ridge, traders see negligible risk before official finalization.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 14?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 14?
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$67,445 交易量
$67,445 交易量
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$67,445 交易量
$67,445 交易量
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 28°C at 100% implied probability for Wuhan's highest temperature on May 14, driven by observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) station at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, which recorded a peak of 28°C amid humid conditions with partial cloud cover limiting further solar heating. Mid-May climatology supports this, with average highs around 26–28°C and recent daily patterns showing peaks in the late afternoon before evening cooling; forecast models from AccuWeather and others align at 27–28°C (81°F). Realistic challenges include an improbable late-day clearing boosting insolation to 29°C or a data revision, but with the diurnal cycle advancing and no strong high-pressure ridge, traders see negligible risk before official finalization.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions