Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range forecasts and real-time observations drive the 100% market-implied probability for Seoul's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 15, with hourly projections peaking at 27-29°C around 3 PM KST under clear skies, light winds, and subsidence from a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm advection. Current station data already shows temperatures climbing past 25°C mid-afternoon, aligning with GFS and ECMWF model consensus for above-normal heat—following yesterday's confirmed 26.3°C high—against mid-May climatological averages near 23°C. Realistic challenges include sudden cloud development or a northerly surge disrupting the ridge, though 0-10% precipitation odds and stable steering patterns minimize such risks; traders await KMA's end-of-day official maximum for resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Seoul on May 15?
Highest temperature in Seoul on May 15?
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$185,638 交易量
$185,638 交易量
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
Yes
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$185,638 交易量
$185,638 交易量
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
Yes
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) short-range forecasts and real-time observations drive the 100% market-implied probability for Seoul's highest temperature reaching 26°C or higher on May 15, with hourly projections peaking at 27-29°C around 3 PM KST under clear skies, light winds, and subsidence from a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm advection. Current station data already shows temperatures climbing past 25°C mid-afternoon, aligning with GFS and ECMWF model consensus for above-normal heat—following yesterday's confirmed 26.3°C high—against mid-May climatological averages near 23°C. Realistic challenges include sudden cloud development or a northerly surge disrupting the ridge, though 0-10% precipitation odds and stable steering patterns minimize such risks; traders await KMA's end-of-day official maximum for resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions