The 2027 French presidential election features a wide-open field following Emmanuel Macron’s term limit, with the most immediate driver being the July 7, 2026 Paris Court of Appeals ruling on Marine Le Pen’s embezzlement conviction and potential five-year public-office ban. A upheld ineligibility would likely hand the National Rally nomination to Jordan Bardella, who already leads most first-round polling averages. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s May 2026 confirmation of a fourth candidacy has consolidated much of the radical left but complicated efforts by Socialists, Greens, and other left-wing groups to organize a unitary primary. On the center-right, figures including Édouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, and Bruno Retailleau are positioning themselves through local victories and party processes, while polls continue to show the far-right ticket favored to reach the runoff against a fragmented mainstream field.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$53,783 交易量

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
89%

Édouard Philippe
88%

Nathalie Arthaud
84%

Bruno Retailleau
73%

Jordan Bardella
70%

Marine Tondelier
55%

Éric Zemmour
56%

David Lisnard
45%

Raphaël Glucksmann
55%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
51%

Dominique de Villepin
50%

Fabien Roussel
49%

François Hollande
44%

François Ruffin
40%

Gabriel Attal
40%

Sarah Knafo
37%

Marine Le Pen
29%

François Asselineau
28%

Delphine Batho
16%

馬提厄·皮加斯
18%

Bernard Cazeneuve
27%

Gérald Darmanin
17%

Xavier Bertrand
15%

胡安·布蘭科
14%

Jérôme Guedj
12%

Laurent Wauquiez
11%

Jean Castex
10%

Ségolène Royal
10%

Carole Delga
15%

米歇爾-愛德華·勒克萊爾
9%

Sébastien Lecornu
9%

菲利普·德·維利耶
8%

Élisabeth Borne
7%

Jean-Michel Fauvergue
7%

曼努埃爾·瓦爾斯
6%

Olivier Faure
13%

Karim Bouamrane
6%

巴利·巴亞約科
5%

Clémentine Autain
5%

Mathilde Panot
5%

Valérie Pécresse
4%

François Bayrou
4%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
4%

泰迪·里納
3%

Michel Barnier
2%

Manuel Bompard
40%
$53,783 交易量

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
89%

Édouard Philippe
88%

Nathalie Arthaud
84%

Bruno Retailleau
73%

Jordan Bardella
70%

Marine Tondelier
55%

Éric Zemmour
56%

David Lisnard
45%

Raphaël Glucksmann
55%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
51%

Dominique de Villepin
50%

Fabien Roussel
49%

François Hollande
44%

François Ruffin
40%

Gabriel Attal
40%

Sarah Knafo
37%

Marine Le Pen
29%

François Asselineau
28%

Delphine Batho
16%

馬提厄·皮加斯
18%

Bernard Cazeneuve
27%

Gérald Darmanin
17%

Xavier Bertrand
15%

胡安·布蘭科
14%

Jérôme Guedj
12%

Laurent Wauquiez
11%

Jean Castex
10%

Ségolène Royal
10%

Carole Delga
15%

米歇爾-愛德華·勒克萊爾
9%

Sébastien Lecornu
9%

菲利普·德·維利耶
8%

Élisabeth Borne
7%

Jean-Michel Fauvergue
7%

曼努埃爾·瓦爾斯
6%

Olivier Faure
13%

Karim Bouamrane
6%

巴利·巴亞約科
5%

Clémentine Autain
5%

Mathilde Panot
5%

Valérie Pécresse
4%

François Bayrou
4%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
4%

泰迪·里納
3%

Michel Barnier
2%

Manuel Bompard
40%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間: Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The 2027 French presidential election features a wide-open field following Emmanuel Macron’s term limit, with the most immediate driver being the July 7, 2026 Paris Court of Appeals ruling on Marine Le Pen’s embezzlement conviction and potential five-year public-office ban. A upheld ineligibility would likely hand the National Rally nomination to Jordan Bardella, who already leads most first-round polling averages. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s May 2026 confirmation of a fourth candidacy has consolidated much of the radical left but complicated efforts by Socialists, Greens, and other left-wing groups to organize a unitary primary. On the center-right, figures including Édouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, and Bruno Retailleau are positioning themselves through local victories and party processes, while polls continue to show the far-right ticket favored to reach the runoff against a fragmented mainstream field.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions