Eli Crane maintains a narrow but stable lead over Jonathan Nez in Arizona’s 2nd congressional district following the November 3 election, with unofficial results showing Crane ahead by roughly 1.2 percentage points after nearly all ballots are counted. As the Republican incumbent in a rural, Republican-leaning district that favored Trump by double digits in 2024, Crane benefits from stronger fundraising, heavier outside spending support, and vote-counting trends that have held or slightly expanded his margin. The race remains uncalled pending final canvassing by November 19, though the current gap exceeds Arizona’s automatic recount threshold. Trader consensus reflected in the 98.5% price for Crane aligns with these results and historical patterns, while a decisive late shift in remaining ballots or successful legal challenge would be required to alter the outcome.