Republican incumbent Eli Crane holds a clear edge in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election. The district’s R+7 partisan voting index and Crane’s 54.5%-45.5% victory over the same Democratic opponent, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez, in 2024 establish a structural Republican advantage. A late-August Peak Insights poll showed Crane leading 53%-42%, while FEC data through early summer indicated Crane’s campaign had raised roughly $9.5 million compared with Nez’s $3.5 million. Both candidates ran unopposed in the July 21 primaries, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Likely Republican. These factors—incumbency, fundraising disparity, district lean, and recent polling—underpin traders’ 71% probability for the Republican nominee.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和黨
71%
民主黨
28%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和黨
$1,480 交易量
71%
民主黨
$1,154 交易量
28%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Eli Crane holds a clear edge in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election. The district’s R+7 partisan voting index and Crane’s 54.5%-45.5% victory over the same Democratic opponent, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez, in 2024 establish a structural Republican advantage. A late-August Peak Insights poll showed Crane leading 53%-42%, while FEC data through early summer indicated Crane’s campaign had raised roughly $9.5 million compared with Nez’s $3.5 million. Both candidates ran unopposed in the July 21 primaries, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Likely Republican. These factors—incumbency, fundraising disparity, district lean, and recent polling—underpin traders’ 71% probability for the Republican nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
交易量
$2,634結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Eli Crane holds a clear edge in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election. The district’s R+7 partisan voting index and Crane’s 54.5%-45.5% victory over the same Democratic opponent, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez, in 2024 establish a structural Republican advantage. A late-August Peak Insights poll showed Crane leading 53%-42%, while FEC data through early summer indicated Crane’s campaign had raised roughly $9.5 million compared with Nez’s $3.5 million. Both candidates ran unopposed in the July 21 primaries, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Likely Republican. These factors—incumbency, fundraising disparity, district lean, and recent polling—underpin traders’ 71% probability for the Republican nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$2,634結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETRepublican incumbent Eli Crane holds a clear edge in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election. The district’s R+7 partisan voting index and Crane’s 54.5%-45.5% victory over the same Democratic opponent, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez, in 2024 establish a structural Republican advantage. A late-August Peak Insights poll showed Crane leading 53%-42%, while FEC data through early summer indicated Crane’s campaign had raised roughly $9.5 million compared with Nez’s $3.5 million. Both candidates ran unopposed in the July 21 primaries, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Likely Republican. These factors—incumbency, fundraising disparity, district lean, and recent polling—underpin traders’ 71% probability for the Republican nominee.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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