**Republican incumbent Eli Crane holds a strong position in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election.** The district’s R+7 partisan lean, combined with Crane’s incumbency and 2024 win margin of 54.5%–45.5% against the same Democratic opponent, anchors trader consensus around a Republican victory. A late-August Peak Insights poll showed Crane leading former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez 53%–42%, widening his advantage from an earlier June survey. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the July 21 primaries, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Likely Republican. Crane’s Trump endorsement and Freedom Caucus profile further align with the district’s rural and conservative voter base, while Nez’s efforts to improve on 2024 performance and mobilize Native American turnout have not yet shifted the race into toss-up territory. The Libertarian candidate on the ballot adds minor vote-splitting uncertainty but does not materially alter the outlook.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和黨
70%
民主黨
30%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和黨
$1,468 交易量
70%
民主黨
$1,154 交易量
30%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican incumbent Eli Crane holds a strong position in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election.** The district’s R+7 partisan lean, combined with Crane’s incumbency and 2024 win margin of 54.5%–45.5% against the same Democratic opponent, anchors trader consensus around a Republican victory. A late-August Peak Insights poll showed Crane leading former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez 53%–42%, widening his advantage from an earlier June survey. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the July 21 primaries, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Likely Republican. Crane’s Trump endorsement and Freedom Caucus profile further align with the district’s rural and conservative voter base, while Nez’s efforts to improve on 2024 performance and mobilize Native American turnout have not yet shifted the race into toss-up territory. The Libertarian candidate on the ballot adds minor vote-splitting uncertainty but does not materially alter the outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
交易量
$2,622結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican incumbent Eli Crane holds a strong position in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election.** The district’s R+7 partisan lean, combined with Crane’s incumbency and 2024 win margin of 54.5%–45.5% against the same Democratic opponent, anchors trader consensus around a Republican victory. A late-August Peak Insights poll showed Crane leading former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez 53%–42%, widening his advantage from an earlier June survey. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the July 21 primaries, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Likely Republican. Crane’s Trump endorsement and Freedom Caucus profile further align with the district’s rural and conservative voter base, while Nez’s efforts to improve on 2024 performance and mobilize Native American turnout have not yet shifted the race into toss-up territory. The Libertarian candidate on the ballot adds minor vote-splitting uncertainty but does not materially alter the outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$2,622結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican incumbent Eli Crane holds a strong position in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election.** The district’s R+7 partisan lean, combined with Crane’s incumbency and 2024 win margin of 54.5%–45.5% against the same Democratic opponent, anchors trader consensus around a Republican victory. A late-August Peak Insights poll showed Crane leading former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez 53%–42%, widening his advantage from an earlier June survey. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the July 21 primaries, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Likely Republican. Crane’s Trump endorsement and Freedom Caucus profile further align with the district’s rural and conservative voter base, while Nez’s efforts to improve on 2024 performance and mobilize Native American turnout have not yet shifted the race into toss-up territory. The Libertarian candidate on the ballot adds minor vote-splitting uncertainty but does not materially alter the outlook.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions