**US maximum-pressure measures, including expanded sanctions, an effective oil import blockade, and public statements from Secretary of State Marco Rubio framing Cuba as a failed state, have intensified the island’s economic and energy crisis through 2026.** Severe blackouts, fuel shortages, and GDP contraction have sparked recurrent cacerolazo protests and record emigration, yet the regime has maintained control through security apparatus cohesion, limited private-sector reforms, and repression. Díaz-Canel remains in office amid speculation over Raúl Castro’s influence and possible internal succession, while back-channel talks with Washington have yielded no breakthrough. Traders price an 89.5% chance the one-party system survives the year because historical resilience, elite continuity, and the absence of a decisive fracture or external intervention outweigh the visible strains.