Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% chance that the Cuban regime under President Miguel Díaz-Canel will endure through 2026, reflecting its resilience amid escalating economic crisis, blackouts, and protests driven by U.S. oil sanctions and fuel shortages. March 2026 saw a surge to 229 protests—including rare riots targeting Communist Party offices—but authorities swiftly repressed unrest without sparking organized opposition or military defection. Díaz-Canel's defiant May speeches condemning new Trump administration sanctions, coupled with a massive May Day rally in Havana, signal regime cohesion and loyalty from the Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR). While analysts note parallels to Venezuela's Maduro ouster, lack of viable challengers and alliances with China sustain stability, tempering expectations of collapse before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$239,992 交易量
$239,992 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$239,992 交易量
$239,992 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% chance that the Cuban regime under President Miguel Díaz-Canel will endure through 2026, reflecting its resilience amid escalating economic crisis, blackouts, and protests driven by U.S. oil sanctions and fuel shortages. March 2026 saw a surge to 229 protests—including rare riots targeting Communist Party offices—but authorities swiftly repressed unrest without sparking organized opposition or military defection. Díaz-Canel's defiant May speeches condemning new Trump administration sanctions, coupled with a massive May Day rally in Havana, signal regime cohesion and loyalty from the Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR). While analysts note parallels to Venezuela's Maduro ouster, lack of viable challengers and alliances with China sustain stability, tempering expectations of collapse before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
交易量
$239,992結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% chance that the Cuban regime under President Miguel Díaz-Canel will endure through 2026, reflecting its resilience amid escalating economic crisis, blackouts, and protests driven by U.S. oil sanctions and fuel shortages. March 2026 saw a surge to 229 protests—including rare riots targeting Communist Party offices—but authorities swiftly repressed unrest without sparking organized opposition or military defection. Díaz-Canel's defiant May speeches condemning new Trump administration sanctions, coupled with a massive May Day rally in Havana, signal regime cohesion and loyalty from the Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR). While analysts note parallels to Venezuela's Maduro ouster, lack of viable challengers and alliances with China sustain stability, tempering expectations of collapse before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$239,992結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% chance that the Cuban regime under President Miguel Díaz-Canel will endure through 2026, reflecting its resilience amid escalating economic crisis, blackouts, and protests driven by U.S. oil sanctions and fuel shortages. March 2026 saw a surge to 229 protests—including rare riots targeting Communist Party offices—but authorities swiftly repressed unrest without sparking organized opposition or military defection. Díaz-Canel's defiant May speeches condemning new Trump administration sanctions, coupled with a massive May Day rally in Havana, signal regime cohesion and loyalty from the Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR). While analysts note parallels to Venezuela's Maduro ouster, lack of viable challengers and alliances with China sustain stability, tempering expectations of collapse before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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