Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a sequential pickup in core services and headline inflation, alongside elevated energy prices tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, have reinforced the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent at the late-April FOMC meeting. Resilient April employment gains and a stable 4.3 percent unemployment rate have further reduced the case for near-term easing, aligning with the 93.5 percent market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 gathering. Traders are pricing in this pause as a risk-management stance against persistent inflation pressures, though a sharp decline in core readings or unexpected labor-market softening ahead of the June 16-17 meeting could still shift expectations toward a modest cut.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於無變動 94%
上調25個基點 4.0%
下調25個基點 2.1%
降息50個基點以上 <1%
$5,602,016 交易量
$5,602,016 交易量
2026-07-29
降息50個基點以上
1%
下調25個基點
2%
無變動
94%
上調25個基點
4%
上調50個基點以上
<1%
無變動 94%
上調25個基點 4.0%
下調25個基點 2.1%
降息50個基點以上 <1%
$5,602,016 交易量
$5,602,016 交易量
2026-07-29
降息50個基點以上
$554,886 交易量
1%
下調25個基點
$425,006 交易量
2%
無變動
$663,128 交易量
94%
上調25個基點
$3,408,309 交易量
4%
上調50個基點以上
$550,688 交易量
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a sequential pickup in core services and headline inflation, alongside elevated energy prices tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, have reinforced the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent at the late-April FOMC meeting. Resilient April employment gains and a stable 4.3 percent unemployment rate have further reduced the case for near-term easing, aligning with the 93.5 percent market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 gathering. Traders are pricing in this pause as a risk-management stance against persistent inflation pressures, though a sharp decline in core readings or unexpected labor-market softening ahead of the June 16-17 meeting could still shift expectations toward a modest cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
交易量
$5,602,016結束日期
2026-07-29市場開放時間
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a sequential pickup in core services and headline inflation, alongside elevated energy prices tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, have reinforced the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent at the late-April FOMC meeting. Resilient April employment gains and a stable 4.3 percent unemployment rate have further reduced the case for near-term easing, aligning with the 93.5 percent market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 gathering. Traders are pricing in this pause as a risk-management stance against persistent inflation pressures, though a sharp decline in core readings or unexpected labor-market softening ahead of the June 16-17 meeting could still shift expectations toward a modest cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$5,602,016結束日期
2026-07-29市場開放時間
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a sequential pickup in core services and headline inflation, alongside elevated energy prices tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, have reinforced the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent at the late-April FOMC meeting. Resilient April employment gains and a stable 4.3 percent unemployment rate have further reduced the case for near-term easing, aligning with the 93.5 percent market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 gathering. Traders are pricing in this pause as a risk-management stance against persistent inflation pressures, though a sharp decline in core readings or unexpected labor-market softening ahead of the June 16-17 meeting could still shift expectations toward a modest cut.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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