Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings have shifted trader focus toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike, with futures markets now pricing in roughly a 50 percent chance of a 25-basis-point increase by year-end and a higher probability into early 2027. Persistent core price pressures, resilient consumer spending, and geopolitical factors such as the ongoing Iran conflict have reduced the likelihood of near-term easing while raising the bar for any policy shift. The federal funds target range remains at 3.50 to 3.75 percent following the April FOMC decision, and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh inherits a data-dependent stance amid mixed labor-market signals. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 17-18 FOMC meeting and fresh CPI and PCE releases that could further influence market-implied rate paths.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$148,654 交易量
2026-12-09
六月會議
1%
七月會議
6%
九月會議
16%
十月會議
27%
$148,654 交易量
六月會議
$14,700 交易量
1%
七月會議
$1,008 交易量
6%
九月會議
$161 交易量
16%
十月會議
$1,477 交易量
27%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings have shifted trader focus toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike, with futures markets now pricing in roughly a 50 percent chance of a 25-basis-point increase by year-end and a higher probability into early 2027. Persistent core price pressures, resilient consumer spending, and geopolitical factors such as the ongoing Iran conflict have reduced the likelihood of near-term easing while raising the bar for any policy shift. The federal funds target range remains at 3.50 to 3.75 percent following the April FOMC decision, and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh inherits a data-dependent stance amid mixed labor-market signals. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 17-18 FOMC meeting and fresh CPI and PCE releases that could further influence market-implied rate paths.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$148,654結束日期
2026-10-29市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings have shifted trader focus toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike, with futures markets now pricing in roughly a 50 percent chance of a 25-basis-point increase by year-end and a higher probability into early 2027. Persistent core price pressures, resilient consumer spending, and geopolitical factors such as the ongoing Iran conflict have reduced the likelihood of near-term easing while raising the bar for any policy shift. The federal funds target range remains at 3.50 to 3.75 percent following the April FOMC decision, and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh inherits a data-dependent stance amid mixed labor-market signals. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 17-18 FOMC meeting and fresh CPI and PCE releases that could further influence market-implied rate paths.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$148,654結束日期
2026-10-29市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings have shifted trader focus toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike, with futures markets now pricing in roughly a 50 percent chance of a 25-basis-point increase by year-end and a higher probability into early 2027. Persistent core price pressures, resilient consumer spending, and geopolitical factors such as the ongoing Iran conflict have reduced the likelihood of near-term easing while raising the bar for any policy shift. The federal funds target range remains at 3.50 to 3.75 percent following the April FOMC decision, and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh inherits a data-dependent stance amid mixed labor-market signals. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 17-18 FOMC meeting and fresh CPI and PCE releases that could further influence market-implied rate paths.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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