Florida's structural Republican advantages, including an 11-point voter registration edge and consistent statewide victories since 1998, underpin trader consensus favoring Byron Donalds at 78.5% implied probability over David Jolly. Donalds secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary and benefits from major endorsements, a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $135 million, and alignment with the state's conservative electorate. Recent October polling shows a tightening contest, with several surveys placing the candidates within 2-7 points or tied, driven by Jolly's strength among independents and younger voters. The November 3 election remains subject to turnout dynamics and undecided voters, though historical base rates in Florida gubernatorial races support the market's positioning of Donalds as the clear frontrunner.