**Republican incumbent Mario Díaz-Balart holds a strong advantage in Florida’s 26th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election.** The district’s Republican lean, rated R+7 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, stems from its Miami-Dade suburbs and Cuban-American voter base, reinforced by Florida’s mid-decade redistricting that shifted boundaries in the GOP’s favor. Díaz-Balart, seeking a thirteenth term, advanced unopposed after the August 18 Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat Nicole Locklin emerged as the Democratic nominee. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report (Solid Republican), Sabato’s Crystal Ball (Safe Republican), and others rate the seat as safely or likely Republican, citing the incumbent’s long tenure, fundraising edge, and the district’s structural tilt despite a national environment that has favored Democrats in some other Florida races. Trader consensus in the market aligns with these fundamentals, assigning Republicans an 89.5% probability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$64,612 交易量
$64,612 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
90%
民主黨
10%
$64,612 交易量
$64,612 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
$29,841 交易量
90%
民主黨
$34,770 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican incumbent Mario Díaz-Balart holds a strong advantage in Florida’s 26th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election.** The district’s Republican lean, rated R+7 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, stems from its Miami-Dade suburbs and Cuban-American voter base, reinforced by Florida’s mid-decade redistricting that shifted boundaries in the GOP’s favor. Díaz-Balart, seeking a thirteenth term, advanced unopposed after the August 18 Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat Nicole Locklin emerged as the Democratic nominee. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report (Solid Republican), Sabato’s Crystal Ball (Safe Republican), and others rate the seat as safely or likely Republican, citing the incumbent’s long tenure, fundraising edge, and the district’s structural tilt despite a national environment that has favored Democrats in some other Florida races. Trader consensus in the market aligns with these fundamentals, assigning Republicans an 89.5% probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
交易量
$64,612結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican incumbent Mario Díaz-Balart holds a strong advantage in Florida’s 26th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election.** The district’s Republican lean, rated R+7 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, stems from its Miami-Dade suburbs and Cuban-American voter base, reinforced by Florida’s mid-decade redistricting that shifted boundaries in the GOP’s favor. Díaz-Balart, seeking a thirteenth term, advanced unopposed after the August 18 Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat Nicole Locklin emerged as the Democratic nominee. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report (Solid Republican), Sabato’s Crystal Ball (Safe Republican), and others rate the seat as safely or likely Republican, citing the incumbent’s long tenure, fundraising edge, and the district’s structural tilt despite a national environment that has favored Democrats in some other Florida races. Trader consensus in the market aligns with these fundamentals, assigning Republicans an 89.5% probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$64,612結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ET**Republican incumbent Mario Díaz-Balart holds a strong advantage in Florida’s 26th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election.** The district’s Republican lean, rated R+7 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, stems from its Miami-Dade suburbs and Cuban-American voter base, reinforced by Florida’s mid-decade redistricting that shifted boundaries in the GOP’s favor. Díaz-Balart, seeking a thirteenth term, advanced unopposed after the August 18 Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat Nicole Locklin emerged as the Democratic nominee. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report (Solid Republican), Sabato’s Crystal Ball (Safe Republican), and others rate the seat as safely or likely Republican, citing the incumbent’s long tenure, fundraising edge, and the district’s structural tilt despite a national environment that has favored Democrats in some other Florida races. Trader consensus in the market aligns with these fundamentals, assigning Republicans an 89.5% probability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions