**No Hantavirus vaccine is expected by the end of 2026, aligning with the market's 96.9% implied probability for "No."** All candidates remain in early development: mRNA constructs from UTMB and Moderna/Korea University, plus DNA vaccines targeting Andes virus glycoproteins, have shown strong protection in hamster models but are still preclinical or have only completed small Phase 1 trials. No Phase 2 or 3 efficacy studies are underway for New World strains that cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. The May–June 2026 Andes virus cruise-ship cluster raised visibility yet did not accelerate any program past early stages. Standard regulatory pathways, the need for multi-dose regimens, strain diversity, and challenges in conducting large efficacy trials for a rare disease make licensure within the remaining months of 2026 unrealistic. Only an unforeseen surge in funding or emergency authorization tied to a major outbreak could alter this trajectory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
3% 機率
$139,010 交易量
$139,010 交易量
2026-12-31
3% 機率
$139,010 交易量
$139,010 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**No Hantavirus vaccine is expected by the end of 2026, aligning with the market's 96.9% implied probability for "No."** All candidates remain in early development: mRNA constructs from UTMB and Moderna/Korea University, plus DNA vaccines targeting Andes virus glycoproteins, have shown strong protection in hamster models but are still preclinical or have only completed small Phase 1 trials. No Phase 2 or 3 efficacy studies are underway for New World strains that cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. The May–June 2026 Andes virus cruise-ship cluster raised visibility yet did not accelerate any program past early stages. Standard regulatory pathways, the need for multi-dose regimens, strain diversity, and challenges in conducting large efficacy trials for a rare disease make licensure within the remaining months of 2026 unrealistic. Only an unforeseen surge in funding or emergency authorization tied to a major outbreak could alter this trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
交易量
$139,010結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**No Hantavirus vaccine is expected by the end of 2026, aligning with the market's 96.9% implied probability for "No."** All candidates remain in early development: mRNA constructs from UTMB and Moderna/Korea University, plus DNA vaccines targeting Andes virus glycoproteins, have shown strong protection in hamster models but are still preclinical or have only completed small Phase 1 trials. No Phase 2 or 3 efficacy studies are underway for New World strains that cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. The May–June 2026 Andes virus cruise-ship cluster raised visibility yet did not accelerate any program past early stages. Standard regulatory pathways, the need for multi-dose regimens, strain diversity, and challenges in conducting large efficacy trials for a rare disease make licensure within the remaining months of 2026 unrealistic. Only an unforeseen surge in funding or emergency authorization tied to a major outbreak could alter this trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$139,010結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ET**No Hantavirus vaccine is expected by the end of 2026, aligning with the market's 96.9% implied probability for "No."** All candidates remain in early development: mRNA constructs from UTMB and Moderna/Korea University, plus DNA vaccines targeting Andes virus glycoproteins, have shown strong protection in hamster models but are still preclinical or have only completed small Phase 1 trials. No Phase 2 or 3 efficacy studies are underway for New World strains that cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. The May–June 2026 Andes virus cruise-ship cluster raised visibility yet did not accelerate any program past early stages. Standard regulatory pathways, the need for multi-dose regimens, strain diversity, and challenges in conducting large efficacy trials for a rare disease make licensure within the remaining months of 2026 unrealistic. Only an unforeseen surge in funding or emergency authorization tied to a major outbreak could alter this trajectory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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