Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 88.5% implied probability to no FDA-approved hantavirus vaccine by December 31, 2026, driven by the lack of any candidates in late-stage clinical trials and the standard timelines required for Phase 3 testing, safety reviews, and regulatory approval. Official CDC and WHO statements confirm no licensed vaccine or specific treatment exists, with care limited to supportive measures amid confirmed cases from a recent multi-country Andes hantavirus cluster linked to a cruise ship—eight cases including three deaths as of early May. Preclinical efforts, such as University of Bath's antigen and DNA vaccines from prior Phase 1 trials, show promise but face years of development without emergency acceleration like Operation Warp Speed. Watch for funding announcements or new trial initiations that could shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
$79,673 交易量
$79,673 交易量
2026-12-31
$79,673 交易量
$79,673 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 88.5% implied probability to no FDA-approved hantavirus vaccine by December 31, 2026, driven by the lack of any candidates in late-stage clinical trials and the standard timelines required for Phase 3 testing, safety reviews, and regulatory approval. Official CDC and WHO statements confirm no licensed vaccine or specific treatment exists, with care limited to supportive measures amid confirmed cases from a recent multi-country Andes hantavirus cluster linked to a cruise ship—eight cases including three deaths as of early May. Preclinical efforts, such as University of Bath's antigen and DNA vaccines from prior Phase 1 trials, show promise but face years of development without emergency acceleration like Operation Warp Speed. Watch for funding announcements or new trial initiations that could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
交易量
$79,673結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 88.5% implied probability to no FDA-approved hantavirus vaccine by December 31, 2026, driven by the lack of any candidates in late-stage clinical trials and the standard timelines required for Phase 3 testing, safety reviews, and regulatory approval. Official CDC and WHO statements confirm no licensed vaccine or specific treatment exists, with care limited to supportive measures amid confirmed cases from a recent multi-country Andes hantavirus cluster linked to a cruise ship—eight cases including three deaths as of early May. Preclinical efforts, such as University of Bath's antigen and DNA vaccines from prior Phase 1 trials, show promise but face years of development without emergency acceleration like Operation Warp Speed. Watch for funding announcements or new trial initiations that could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$79,673結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 88.5% implied probability to no FDA-approved hantavirus vaccine by December 31, 2026, driven by the lack of any candidates in late-stage clinical trials and the standard timelines required for Phase 3 testing, safety reviews, and regulatory approval. Official CDC and WHO statements confirm no licensed vaccine or specific treatment exists, with care limited to supportive measures amid confirmed cases from a recent multi-country Andes hantavirus cluster linked to a cruise ship—eight cases including three deaths as of early May. Preclinical efforts, such as University of Bath's antigen and DNA vaccines from prior Phase 1 trials, show promise but face years of development without emergency acceleration like Operation Warp Speed. Watch for funding announcements or new trial initiations that could shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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