**Trader consensus has converged overwhelmingly on a 26°C daily maximum for Busan on October 1, 2026, reflecting alignment between current observations, short-term model runs, and official guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA).** As of late afternoon/early evening local time, surface observations and hourly data show temperatures climbing into the mid-20s°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions with light northwesterly winds, consistent with a peak near 26°C. Multiple forecasts, including GFS-derived products and regional guidance, place the daytime high at 24–26°C (roughly 75–79°F), matching historical early-October averages for the region while noting the large diurnal range typical after recent frontal passages. The KMA’s afternoon update projected a broad 18.7–25.8°C envelope for highs, with localized coastal stations like Busan favoring the upper end under clear skies and minimal precipitation. This near-certainty in the market stems from the proximity to resolution on the same calendar day, reducing forecast uncertainty, combined with real-capital incentives that reward precise calibration to authoritative measurements (typically the official KMA station reading). Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpectedly sharp late-day temperature drop, station-specific microclimate effects, or a revision in the final verified maximum, though current trends make these low-probability. Upcoming KMA updates or final daily summaries will provide the decisive data point.