**Trader consensus on 22°C as the highest temperature in Chongqing on October 1, 2026, rests on consistent official forecasts and real-time observations showing a daytime maximum near that level amid widespread cloud cover and light rain.** Multiple meteorological sources, including hourly data, project peaks of 22–23°C under northerly winds and high humidity typical of early autumn in this subtropical basin, aligning with climatological averages for the date. The near-certain market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game assessment of stable atmospheric conditions that limit solar heating and convective warming. A realistic challenge would require rapid clearing of clouds or a significant model revision indicating stronger insolation, though current consensus from monitoring agencies shows low probability of such shifts before resolution.