Recent official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional project a maximum of 23–25 °C in Mexico City on October 3, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on 23–24 °C outcomes. Multiple global models, including Met Office and European ensembles, converge on similar values amid typical early-October conditions in the Valley of Mexico: moderate southerly flow, increasing afternoon cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. These temperatures sit near the long-term early-October average of roughly 21–23 °C, with no strong high-pressure ridge or clear-sky setup to push readings higher. Traders appear to be pricing in the narrow range of model solutions while discounting the modest upside risk of 25 °C or above if convection remains limited. The final recorded high will be determined by the official CONAGUA station network after the day concludes.