Forecast models from agencies including the German Weather Service and ensembles like GFS and Open-Meteo show Munich reaching a daytime maximum of 24°C on October 1 under mostly cloudy skies, light northwesterly winds, and negligible precipitation. This consensus, supported by afternoon observations near 24°C and above the long-term average high of roughly 17°C, drives the market's 99.2% implied probability for exactly 24°C. Minor model spread or localized microclimate effects could push readings to 23°C or 25°C, though current data and steering patterns make significant deviations unlikely before resolution.