Recent model consensus points to a maximum around 21–23°C in São Paulo on October 3, driven by a passing cold front and associated cloud cover that limits daytime heating. Official guidance from sources such as the Met Office and local agencies shows highs near 24°C under partly cloudy skies with light rain possible, while some ensemble runs favor cooler outcomes near 19–20°C if persistent overcast and showers develop. These conditions contrast with typical early-October averages of 22–25°C and reflect short-term variability in steering patterns and moisture. Traders weigh the spread between deterministic and ensemble forecasts, with resolution hinging on the final observed peak at official stations. Updated model runs and INMET briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of market close.