Recent Météo-France and European ensemble model runs show a cooler, more unsettled air mass moving over northern France, bringing increased cloud cover and scattered showers that limit afternoon heating in Paris on August 21. These conditions are expected to cap the official maximum near 23–25 °C under partly cloudy skies, aligning closely with the market’s strong clustering around 23 °C (50.5 % implied probability) and 24 °C (26.5 %). Historical August averages for the city hover near 23–24 °C, and the current setup deviates only modestly from that baseline due to the fresher northerly flow replacing earlier warmth. Ensemble spread remains narrow, with limited upside risk from clearing skies or stronger insolation, while downside scenarios involve more persistent showers. Updated model guidance and any last-minute observational shifts from Météo-France will be the key near-term catalysts for probability adjustments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月21日巴黎最高溫度？
8月21日巴黎最高溫度？
23°C 52%
24°C 25%
22°C 14%
25°C 6%
最新
$11,686 交易量
最新
$11,686 交易量
2026-08-21
20°C or below
2%
21°C
4%
22°C
14%
23°C
52%
24°C
25%
25°C
6%
26°C
2%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
23°C 52%
24°C 25%
22°C 14%
25°C 6%
最新
$11,686 交易量
最新
$11,686 交易量
2026-08-21
20°C or below
$901 交易量
2%
21°C
$573 交易量
4%
22°C
$643 交易量
14%
23°C
$3,926 交易量
52%
24°C
$1,172 交易量
25%
25°C
$492 交易量
6%
26°C
$606 交易量
2%
27°C
$398 交易量
1%
28°C
$445 交易量
<1%
29°C
$1,268 交易量
<1%
30°C or higher
$1,263 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France and European ensemble model runs show a cooler, more unsettled air mass moving over northern France, bringing increased cloud cover and scattered showers that limit afternoon heating in Paris on August 21. These conditions are expected to cap the official maximum near 23–25 °C under partly cloudy skies, aligning closely with the market’s strong clustering around 23 °C (50.5 % implied probability) and 24 °C (26.5 %).
Historical August averages for the city hover near 23–24 °C, and the current setup deviates only modestly from that baseline due to the fresher northerly flow replacing earlier warmth. Ensemble spread remains narrow, with limited upside risk from clearing skies or stronger insolation, while downside scenarios involve more persistent showers. Updated model guidance and any last-minute observational shifts from Météo-France will be the key near-term catalysts for probability adjustments.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 19, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
交易量
$11,686結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 19, 2026, 12:55 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France and European ensemble model runs show a cooler, more unsettled air mass moving over northern France, bringing increased cloud cover and scattered showers that limit afternoon heating in Paris on August 21. These conditions are expected to cap the official maximum near 23–25 °C under partly cloudy skies, aligning closely with the market’s strong clustering around 23 °C (50.5 % implied probability) and 24 °C (26.5 %).
Historical August averages for the city hover near 23–24 °C, and the current setup deviates only modestly from that baseline due to the fresher northerly flow replacing earlier warmth. Ensemble spread remains narrow, with limited upside risk from clearing skies or stronger insolation, while downside scenarios involve more persistent showers. Updated model guidance and any last-minute observational shifts from Météo-France will be the key near-term catalysts for probability adjustments.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$11,686結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 19, 2026, 12:55 AM ETRecent Météo-France and European ensemble model runs show a cooler, more unsettled air mass moving over northern France, bringing increased cloud cover and scattered showers that limit afternoon heating in Paris on August 21. These conditions are expected to cap the official maximum near 23–25 °C under partly cloudy skies, aligning closely with the market’s strong clustering around 23 °C (50.5 % implied probability) and 24 °C (26.5 %). Historical August averages for the city hover near 23–24 °C, and the current setup deviates only modestly from that baseline due to the fresher northerly flow replacing earlier warmth. Ensemble spread remains narrow, with limited upside risk from clearing skies or stronger insolation, while downside scenarios involve more persistent showers. Updated model guidance and any last-minute observational shifts from Météo-France will be the key near-term catalysts for probability adjustments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions