Traders see 27–28°C as the most likely peak for Shanghai on July 2 because current ensemble forecasts from regional models show daytime maxima centered in that narrow range amid typical early-July conditions. The East Asian summer monsoon supplies warm, moist air from the south while residual plum-rain moisture and variable cloud cover limit strong daytime heating; sea breezes off the East China Sea further moderate coastal readings. Historical climatology places early-July averages near 30–31°C, yet recent June observations indicate slightly below-normal insolation and frequent light rain, pulling expectations downward. Model spread on exact cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture keeps 26°C and 29°C outcomes viable, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the central values. Updated short-range guidance expected within 48 hours could shift odds if clearer skies or heavier showers materialize.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 2?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 2?
28°C 29%
27°C 26%
29°C 25%
26°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-07-02
20°C or below
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
11%
27°C
26%
28°C
29%
29°C
25%
30°C or higher
9%
28°C 29%
27°C 26%
29°C 25%
26°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-07-02
20°C or below
$396 交易量
1%
21°C
$45 交易量
1%
22°C
$50 交易量
1%
23°C
$10 交易量
1%
24°C
$10 交易量
1%
25°C
$181 交易量
2%
26°C
$70 交易量
11%
27°C
$46 交易量
26%
28°C
$137 交易量
29%
29°C
$112 交易量
25%
30°C or higher
$49 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 27–28°C as the most likely peak for Shanghai on July 2 because current ensemble forecasts from regional models show daytime maxima centered in that narrow range amid typical early-July conditions. The East Asian summer monsoon supplies warm, moist air from the south while residual plum-rain moisture and variable cloud cover limit strong daytime heating; sea breezes off the East China Sea further moderate coastal readings. Historical climatology places early-July averages near 30–31°C, yet recent June observations indicate slightly below-normal insolation and frequent light rain, pulling expectations downward. Model spread on exact cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture keeps 26°C and 29°C outcomes viable, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the central values. Updated short-range guidance expected within 48 hours could shift odds if clearer skies or heavier showers materialize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jun 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$1,107結束日期
2026-07-02市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 27–28°C as the most likely peak for Shanghai on July 2 because current ensemble forecasts from regional models show daytime maxima centered in that narrow range amid typical early-July conditions. The East Asian summer monsoon supplies warm, moist air from the south while residual plum-rain moisture and variable cloud cover limit strong daytime heating; sea breezes off the East China Sea further moderate coastal readings. Historical climatology places early-July averages near 30–31°C, yet recent June observations indicate slightly below-normal insolation and frequent light rain, pulling expectations downward. Model spread on exact cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture keeps 26°C and 29°C outcomes viable, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the central values. Updated short-range guidance expected within 48 hours could shift odds if clearer skies or heavier showers materialize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,107結束日期
2026-07-02市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETTraders see 27–28°C as the most likely peak for Shanghai on July 2 because current ensemble forecasts from regional models show daytime maxima centered in that narrow range amid typical early-July conditions. The East Asian summer monsoon supplies warm, moist air from the south while residual plum-rain moisture and variable cloud cover limit strong daytime heating; sea breezes off the East China Sea further moderate coastal readings. Historical climatology places early-July averages near 30–31°C, yet recent June observations indicate slightly below-normal insolation and frequent light rain, pulling expectations downward. Model spread on exact cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture keeps 26°C and 29°C outcomes viable, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the central values. Updated short-range guidance expected within 48 hours could shift odds if clearer skies or heavier showers materialize.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions