Trader consensus for Warsaw's August 7 maximum temperature centers on 25–26°C as the most likely outcomes, reflecting the latest short-range model runs that place daytime highs near or slightly above the seasonal average of 23–25°C. ECMWF and GFS guidance indicate a transitional synoptic pattern with moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover, supporting peak readings in the mid-20s, though small differences in timing of any weak frontal passage or boundary-layer mixing introduce spread across ensemble members. This uncertainty keeps the 27°C bin at a meaningful 16.5% implied probability while suppressing higher outcomes below 3%. Updated model cycles and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月7日華沙的最高溫度？
8月7日華沙的最高溫度？
25°C 36%
26°C 33%
27°C 16%
24°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-07
22°C or below
3%
23°C
5%
24°C
12%
25°C
36%
26°C
33%
27°C
16%
28°C
3%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
25°C 36%
26°C 33%
27°C 16%
24°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-07
22°C or below
$193 交易量
3%
23°C
$23 交易量
5%
24°C
$150 交易量
12%
25°C
$48 交易量
36%
26°C
$77 交易量
33%
27°C
$158 交易量
16%
28°C
$37 交易量
3%
29°C
$30 交易量
1%
30°C
$22 交易量
<1%
31°C
$65 交易量
<1%
32°C or higher
$369 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus for Warsaw's August 7 maximum temperature centers on 25–26°C as the most likely outcomes, reflecting the latest short-range model runs that place daytime highs near or slightly above the seasonal average of 23–25°C. ECMWF and GFS guidance indicate a transitional synoptic pattern with moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover, supporting peak readings in the mid-20s, though small differences in timing of any weak frontal passage or boundary-layer mixing introduce spread across ensemble members. This uncertainty keeps the 27°C bin at a meaningful 16.5% implied probability while suppressing higher outcomes below 3%. Updated model cycles and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$1,171結束日期
2026-08-07市場開放時間
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus for Warsaw's August 7 maximum temperature centers on 25–26°C as the most likely outcomes, reflecting the latest short-range model runs that place daytime highs near or slightly above the seasonal average of 23–25°C. ECMWF and GFS guidance indicate a transitional synoptic pattern with moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover, supporting peak readings in the mid-20s, though small differences in timing of any weak frontal passage or boundary-layer mixing introduce spread across ensemble members. This uncertainty keeps the 27°C bin at a meaningful 16.5% implied probability while suppressing higher outcomes below 3%. Updated model cycles and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,171結束日期
2026-08-07市場開放時間
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETTrader consensus for Warsaw's August 7 maximum temperature centers on 25–26°C as the most likely outcomes, reflecting the latest short-range model runs that place daytime highs near or slightly above the seasonal average of 23–25°C. ECMWF and GFS guidance indicate a transitional synoptic pattern with moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover, supporting peak readings in the mid-20s, though small differences in timing of any weak frontal passage or boundary-layer mixing introduce spread across ensemble members. This uncertainty keeps the 27°C bin at a meaningful 16.5% implied probability while suppressing higher outcomes below 3%. Updated model cycles and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions