Recent forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and local models show Warsaw peaking at 36°C on August 5 under clear, stable high-pressure conditions that limit cloud cover and enhance daytime heating. Observational trends through early August align with these runs, confirming surface temperatures approaching this threshold without significant model spread. The 100% market-implied odds reflect this convergence of verified guidance and minimal uncertainty in the final hours before official IMGW readings, though an unexpected late-day shift in wind patterns or measurement station variance could still adjust the recorded high by 1°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月5日華沙的最高溫度？
8月5日華沙的最高溫度？
36°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$78,397 交易量
$78,397 交易量
2026-08-05
31°C or below
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$78,397 交易量
$78,397 交易量
2026-08-05
31°C or below
$6,369 交易量
No
32°C
$6,999 交易量
No
33°C
$4,818 交易量
No
34°C
$9,175 交易量
No
35°C
$12,597 交易量
No
36°C
$7,806 交易量
Yes
37°C
$5,634 交易量
No
38°C
$9,879 交易量
No
39°C
$8,812 交易量
No
40°C
$4,761 交易量
No
41°C or higher
$1,546 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and local models show Warsaw peaking at 36°C on August 5 under clear, stable high-pressure conditions that limit cloud cover and enhance daytime heating. Observational trends through early August align with these runs, confirming surface temperatures approaching this threshold without significant model spread. The 100% market-implied odds reflect this convergence of verified guidance and minimal uncertainty in the final hours before official IMGW readings, though an unexpected late-day shift in wind patterns or measurement station variance could still adjust the recorded high by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
交易量
$78,397結束日期
2026-08-05市場開放時間
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and local models show Warsaw peaking at 36°C on August 5 under clear, stable high-pressure conditions that limit cloud cover and enhance daytime heating. Observational trends through early August align with these runs, confirming surface temperatures approaching this threshold without significant model spread. The 100% market-implied odds reflect this convergence of verified guidance and minimal uncertainty in the final hours before official IMGW readings, though an unexpected late-day shift in wind patterns or measurement station variance could still adjust the recorded high by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$78,397結束日期
2026-08-05市場開放時間
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Recent forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and local models show Warsaw peaking at 36°C on August 5 under clear, stable high-pressure conditions that limit cloud cover and enhance daytime heating. Observational trends through early August align with these runs, confirming surface temperatures approaching this threshold without significant model spread. The 100% market-implied odds reflect this convergence of verified guidance and minimal uncertainty in the final hours before official IMGW readings, though an unexpected late-day shift in wind patterns or measurement station variance could still adjust the recorded high by 1°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions