Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model consensus points to scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover limiting Chicago's peak temperature on August 5, 2026, driving the market's heaviest weighting toward the 78–81°F range. Lake Michigan's moderating influence, combined with southwest flow and potential for early afternoon convection, creates a narrow window for surface heating before widespread precipitation develops. Historical August normals near 83–84°F provide context for why traders assign lower probability to 82°F+, while model spread on storm initiation timing sustains meaningful odds for 76–77°F or 82–83°F outcomes. Updated short-range guidance expected throughout the day will likely refine these market-implied odds as observational data arrives.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於芝加哥8月5日最高溫度？
芝加哥8月5日最高溫度？
80-81°F 36%
78-79°F 23%
82-83°F 23%
76-77°F 10%
最新
$25,339 交易量
最新
$25,339 交易量
2026-08-05
華氏75度或以下
<1%
76-77°F
10%
78-79°F
23%
80-81°F
36%
82-83°F
23%
84-85°F
8%
86-87°F
4%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
華氏94度或更高
<1%
80-81°F 36%
78-79°F 23%
82-83°F 23%
76-77°F 10%
最新
$25,339 交易量
最新
$25,339 交易量
2026-08-05
華氏75度或以下
$7,250 交易量
<1%
76-77°F
$2,697 交易量
10%
78-79°F
$2,136 交易量
23%
80-81°F
$3,678 交易量
36%
82-83°F
$1,499 交易量
23%
84-85°F
$3,791 交易量
8%
86-87°F
$1,832 交易量
4%
88-89°F
$903 交易量
<1%
90-91°F
$547 交易量
<1%
92-93°F
$524 交易量
<1%
華氏94度或更高
$483 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model consensus points to scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover limiting Chicago's peak temperature on August 5, 2026, driving the market's heaviest weighting toward the 78–81°F range. Lake Michigan's moderating influence, combined with southwest flow and potential for early afternoon convection, creates a narrow window for surface heating before widespread precipitation develops. Historical August normals near 83–84°F provide context for why traders assign lower probability to 82°F+, while model spread on storm initiation timing sustains meaningful odds for 76–77°F or 82–83°F outcomes. Updated short-range guidance expected throughout the day will likely refine these market-implied odds as observational data arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 3, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
交易量
$25,339結束日期
2026-08-05市場開放時間
Aug 3, 2026, 9:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model consensus points to scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover limiting Chicago's peak temperature on August 5, 2026, driving the market's heaviest weighting toward the 78–81°F range. Lake Michigan's moderating influence, combined with southwest flow and potential for early afternoon convection, creates a narrow window for surface heating before widespread precipitation develops. Historical August normals near 83–84°F provide context for why traders assign lower probability to 82°F+, while model spread on storm initiation timing sustains meaningful odds for 76–77°F or 82–83°F outcomes. Updated short-range guidance expected throughout the day will likely refine these market-implied odds as observational data arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$25,339結束日期
2026-08-05市場開放時間
Aug 3, 2026, 9:03 PM ETRecent National Weather Service and NOAA model consensus points to scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover limiting Chicago's peak temperature on August 5, 2026, driving the market's heaviest weighting toward the 78–81°F range. Lake Michigan's moderating influence, combined with southwest flow and potential for early afternoon convection, creates a narrow window for surface heating before widespread precipitation develops. Historical August normals near 83–84°F provide context for why traders assign lower probability to 82°F+, while model spread on storm initiation timing sustains meaningful odds for 76–77°F or 82–83°F outcomes. Updated short-range guidance expected throughout the day will likely refine these market-implied odds as observational data arrives.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions