Traders have priced the 37°C outcome at essentially 100% implied probability for Taipei's peak temperature on August 5, 2026, driven by the latest Central Weather Administration observations and model consensus showing urban heat-island amplification pushing the official station reading to that threshold under partly cloudy, low-precipitation conditions. Subtropical summer humidity and typical August baselines near 32–33°C provide context, yet localized factors including reduced cloud cover and southerly flow have supported the upside from recent analogs like the 36°C reading on August 1. Official forecasts from CWA and AccuWeather align closely on daytime maxima in the mid-30s, with negligible divergence across ensembles at this late stage. Only an unexpected late-day measurement revision or station-specific anomaly could realistically alter resolution, though current data make such shifts highly improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月5日臺北氣溫最高?
37°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$62,073 交易量
$62,073 交易量
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
100%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
37°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$62,073 交易量
$62,073 交易量
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
100%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Traders have priced the 37°C outcome at essentially 100% implied probability for Taipei's peak temperature on August 5, 2026, driven by the latest Central Weather Administration observations and model consensus showing urban heat-island amplification pushing the official station reading to that threshold under partly cloudy, low-precipitation conditions. Subtropical summer humidity and typical August baselines near 32–33°C provide context, yet localized factors including reduced cloud cover and southerly flow have supported the upside from recent analogs like the 36°C reading on August 1. Official forecasts from CWA and AccuWeather align closely on daytime maxima in the mid-30s, with negligible divergence across ensembles at this late stage. Only an unexpected late-day measurement revision or station-specific anomaly could realistically alter resolution, though current data make such shifts highly improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於


警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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