**Trader consensus strongly favors 37°C as Beijing's highest temperature on August 5, 2026, reflecting the latest numerical weather model runs and regional heat patterns.** Official forecasts and monitoring data indicate persistent above-average warmth across northern China, with daytime maxima of 35–37°C expected through mid-week amid typical summer humidity and limited cloud cover. This aligns with climatological norms for early August, when Beijing frequently sees peaks near or above 35°C before the seasonal decline. The 96.5% implied probability captures aggregated trader assessment of model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration, emphasizing steering patterns that maintain warm southerly flow without significant cooling influences. Minor probabilities on 38°C or lower outcomes acknowledge residual uncertainty from potential convective activity or measurement variability at official stations. Realistic challenges include heavier-than-expected afternoon thunderstorms or a faster shift in wind direction that could cap the peak below 37°C, though current conditions make these less likely before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月5日北京最高溫度？
8月5日北京最高溫度？
37°C 98%
38°C 1.0%
39°C or higher <1%
29°C or below <1%
$38,099 交易量
$38,099 交易量
2026-08-05
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
98%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
37°C 98%
38°C 1.0%
39°C or higher <1%
29°C or below <1%
$38,099 交易量
$38,099 交易量
2026-08-05
29°C or below
$308 交易量
<1%
30°C
$1,024 交易量
<1%
31°C
$1,381 交易量
<1%
32°C
$2,340 交易量
<1%
33°C
$4,393 交易量
<1%
34°C
$4,207 交易量
<1%
35°C
$5,232 交易量
<1%
36°C
$5,358 交易量
<1%
37°C
$6,075 交易量
98%
38°C
$5,311 交易量
1%
39°C or higher
$3,086 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 37°C as Beijing's highest temperature on August 5, 2026, reflecting the latest numerical weather model runs and regional heat patterns.** Official forecasts and monitoring data indicate persistent above-average warmth across northern China, with daytime maxima of 35–37°C expected through mid-week amid typical summer humidity and limited cloud cover. This aligns with climatological norms for early August, when Beijing frequently sees peaks near or above 35°C before the seasonal decline.
The 96.5% implied probability captures aggregated trader assessment of model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration, emphasizing steering patterns that maintain warm southerly flow without significant cooling influences. Minor probabilities on 38°C or lower outcomes acknowledge residual uncertainty from potential convective activity or measurement variability at official stations.
Realistic challenges include heavier-than-expected afternoon thunderstorms or a faster shift in wind direction that could cap the peak below 37°C, though current conditions make these less likely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
交易量
$38,099結束日期
2026-08-05市場開放時間
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 37°C as Beijing's highest temperature on August 5, 2026, reflecting the latest numerical weather model runs and regional heat patterns.** Official forecasts and monitoring data indicate persistent above-average warmth across northern China, with daytime maxima of 35–37°C expected through mid-week amid typical summer humidity and limited cloud cover. This aligns with climatological norms for early August, when Beijing frequently sees peaks near or above 35°C before the seasonal decline.
The 96.5% implied probability captures aggregated trader assessment of model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration, emphasizing steering patterns that maintain warm southerly flow without significant cooling influences. Minor probabilities on 38°C or lower outcomes acknowledge residual uncertainty from potential convective activity or measurement variability at official stations.
Realistic challenges include heavier-than-expected afternoon thunderstorms or a faster shift in wind direction that could cap the peak below 37°C, though current conditions make these less likely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$38,099結束日期
2026-08-05市場開放時間
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET**Trader consensus strongly favors 37°C as Beijing's highest temperature on August 5, 2026, reflecting the latest numerical weather model runs and regional heat patterns.** Official forecasts and monitoring data indicate persistent above-average warmth across northern China, with daytime maxima of 35–37°C expected through mid-week amid typical summer humidity and limited cloud cover. This aligns with climatological norms for early August, when Beijing frequently sees peaks near or above 35°C before the seasonal decline. The 96.5% implied probability captures aggregated trader assessment of model consensus from sources like the China Meteorological Administration, emphasizing steering patterns that maintain warm southerly flow without significant cooling influences. Minor probabilities on 38°C or lower outcomes acknowledge residual uncertainty from potential convective activity or measurement variability at official stations. Realistic challenges include heavier-than-expected afternoon thunderstorms or a faster shift in wind direction that could cap the peak below 37°C, though current conditions make these less likely before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions