**Recent short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and supporting international models indicate a daytime maximum of 34 °C at Incheon International Airport, the official reference station for Seoul.** Clear to partly cloudy skies, light winds, and high humidity are limiting both nocturnal cooling and any rapid afternoon spikes, keeping the peak tightly clustered around this value. This aligns with early-August climatology (typical highs 29–31 °C) while reflecting the current heatwave conditions across the region, which have produced consistent readings near 33–35 °C in recent days without pushing into extreme outliers. Trader consensus has converged on the 34 °C bracket at 99.5 % implied probability because the latest model runs and real-time station data show no credible path to 35 °C or higher, and lower outcomes are inconsistent with observed midday temperatures. The primary uncertainty stems from minor timing of peak insolation or localized sea-breeze effects from the Yellow Sea, but these factors are expected to remain insufficient to shift the daily maximum outside the 34 °C range before evening. Updated KMA guidance and hourly observations through the afternoon will provide the final confirmation for market resolution.