**Democratic incumbent Frank Mrvan holds a strong advantage in Indiana’s 1st congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election, consistent with the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party.** The district, encompassing northwest Indiana including parts of the Chicago metro area such as Lake and Porter counties, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+1 and has trended Democratic in recent cycles, with Mrvan securing reelection in 2024 by roughly 8 points. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s established base, superior primary performance (winning 80% of the Democratic vote in May), and ongoing support from the DCCC’s Frontline program. Republican nominee Barb Regnitz, a Porter County commissioner who prevailed in her May primary, has received NRCC backing through its MAGA Majority initiative and maintains competitive fundraising, yet the seat’s structural lean and Mrvan’s incumbency create significant headwinds. No major late-cycle developments have materially altered the outlook since the primaries.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主黨
88%
共和黨
12%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主黨
$2,036 交易量
88%
共和黨
$1,272 交易量
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic incumbent Frank Mrvan holds a strong advantage in Indiana’s 1st congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election, consistent with the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party.**
The district, encompassing northwest Indiana including parts of the Chicago metro area such as Lake and Porter counties, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+1 and has trended Democratic in recent cycles, with Mrvan securing reelection in 2024 by roughly 8 points. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s established base, superior primary performance (winning 80% of the Democratic vote in May), and ongoing support from the DCCC’s Frontline program.
Republican nominee Barb Regnitz, a Porter County commissioner who prevailed in her May primary, has received NRCC backing through its MAGA Majority initiative and maintains competitive fundraising, yet the seat’s structural lean and Mrvan’s incumbency create significant headwinds. No major late-cycle developments have materially altered the outlook since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ET
交易量
$3,308結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic incumbent Frank Mrvan holds a strong advantage in Indiana’s 1st congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election, consistent with the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party.**
The district, encompassing northwest Indiana including parts of the Chicago metro area such as Lake and Porter counties, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+1 and has trended Democratic in recent cycles, with Mrvan securing reelection in 2024 by roughly 8 points. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s established base, superior primary performance (winning 80% of the Democratic vote in May), and ongoing support from the DCCC’s Frontline program.
Republican nominee Barb Regnitz, a Porter County commissioner who prevailed in her May primary, has received NRCC backing through its MAGA Majority initiative and maintains competitive fundraising, yet the seat’s structural lean and Mrvan’s incumbency create significant headwinds. No major late-cycle developments have materially altered the outlook since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$3,308結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic incumbent Frank Mrvan holds a strong advantage in Indiana’s 1st congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election, consistent with the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party.** The district, encompassing northwest Indiana including parts of the Chicago metro area such as Lake and Porter counties, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+1 and has trended Democratic in recent cycles, with Mrvan securing reelection in 2024 by roughly 8 points. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s established base, superior primary performance (winning 80% of the Democratic vote in May), and ongoing support from the DCCC’s Frontline program. Republican nominee Barb Regnitz, a Porter County commissioner who prevailed in her May primary, has received NRCC backing through its MAGA Majority initiative and maintains competitive fundraising, yet the seat’s structural lean and Mrvan’s incumbency create significant headwinds. No major late-cycle developments have materially altered the outlook since the primaries.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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