Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a Tokyo minimum temperature of 27–29°C on July 31 because ensemble forecasts and climatological normals place the daily low in that narrow range during peak summer. Persistent high pressure and warm, humid air masses advected from the Pacific maintain overnight temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages of 24–26°C, while urban heat retention limits radiative cooling. Short-range model runs show limited day-to-day variability, keeping probabilities for outcomes below 25°C or above 30°C well under 30%. New Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and updated numerical weather prediction output expected within 48 hours will determine whether any coastal breeze or increased cloud cover shifts the minimum by 1–2°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月31日東京的最低溫度？
7月31日東京的最低溫度？
28°C 46%
27°C 35%
26°C 15%
29°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-07-31
22°C或以下
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
15%
27°C
35%
28°C
46%
29°C
7%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C或以上
1%
28°C 46%
27°C 35%
26°C 15%
29°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-07-31
22°C或以下
$131 交易量
<1%
23°C
$174 交易量
<1%
24°C
$61 交易量
1%
25°C
$144 交易量
2%
26°C
$186 交易量
15%
27°C
$530 交易量
35%
28°C
$459 交易量
46%
29°C
$110 交易量
7%
30°C
$127 交易量
1%
31°C
$141 交易量
<1%
32°C或以上
$64 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a Tokyo minimum temperature of 27–29°C on July 31 because ensemble forecasts and climatological normals place the daily low in that narrow range during peak summer. Persistent high pressure and warm, humid air masses advected from the Pacific maintain overnight temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages of 24–26°C, while urban heat retention limits radiative cooling. Short-range model runs show limited day-to-day variability, keeping probabilities for outcomes below 25°C or above 30°C well under 30%. New Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and updated numerical weather prediction output expected within 48 hours will determine whether any coastal breeze or increased cloud cover shifts the minimum by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$2,126結束日期
2026-07-31市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a Tokyo minimum temperature of 27–29°C on July 31 because ensemble forecasts and climatological normals place the daily low in that narrow range during peak summer. Persistent high pressure and warm, humid air masses advected from the Pacific maintain overnight temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages of 24–26°C, while urban heat retention limits radiative cooling. Short-range model runs show limited day-to-day variability, keeping probabilities for outcomes below 25°C or above 30°C well under 30%. New Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and updated numerical weather prediction output expected within 48 hours will determine whether any coastal breeze or increased cloud cover shifts the minimum by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,126結束日期
2026-07-31市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETTraders assign the highest implied probabilities to a Tokyo minimum temperature of 27–29°C on July 31 because ensemble forecasts and climatological normals place the daily low in that narrow range during peak summer. Persistent high pressure and warm, humid air masses advected from the Pacific maintain overnight temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages of 24–26°C, while urban heat retention limits radiative cooling. Short-range model runs show limited day-to-day variability, keeping probabilities for outcomes below 25°C or above 30°C well under 30%. New Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and updated numerical weather prediction output expected within 48 hours will determine whether any coastal breeze or increased cloud cover shifts the minimum by 1–2°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions