Republican Aaron Flint holds a clear lead in trader consensus for Montana’s open 1st District House seat, reflecting the district’s underlying Republican tilt and the absence of an incumbent. Flint, a radio host endorsed by President Trump, has focused attacks on Democrat Sam Forstag’s prior lobbying work for progressive groups, including efforts tied to sales taxes and property tax changes. Recent polling averages through late September show a tight contest, with Flint edging or tying Forstag in most surveys. With the November 3 general election three weeks away, the market pricing aligns with the seat’s historical partisan lean and Republican structural advantages in a competitive but favorable environment for the GOP nominee.