Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda, seeking a third term, advanced through the August 8, 2026 Democratic primary with over 91% of the vote against limited challengers, while Republican Brenton Awa, Hawaii State Senate minority leader, secured his party's nomination. All major forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's consistent partisan lean—evident in the incumbent's 66.5% win in 2024 and Kamala Harris's 17.5-point margin there. The district encompasses rural and suburban Oahu plus the neighbor islands, areas that have favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats aligns with these fundamentals and historical patterns for incumbents in non-competitive seats. A late scandal, health issue, or national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap before November 3, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's structural Democratic advantage.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$63,531 交易量
$63,531 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
96%
共和黨
6%
$63,531 交易量
$63,531 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$43,095 交易量
96%
共和黨
$20,436 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda, seeking a third term, advanced through the August 8, 2026 Democratic primary with over 91% of the vote against limited challengers, while Republican Brenton Awa, Hawaii State Senate minority leader, secured his party's nomination. All major forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's consistent partisan lean—evident in the incumbent's 66.5% win in 2024 and Kamala Harris's 17.5-point margin there. The district encompasses rural and suburban Oahu plus the neighbor islands, areas that have favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats aligns with these fundamentals and historical patterns for incumbents in non-competitive seats. A late scandal, health issue, or national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap before November 3, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's structural Democratic advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$63,531結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda, seeking a third term, advanced through the August 8, 2026 Democratic primary with over 91% of the vote against limited challengers, while Republican Brenton Awa, Hawaii State Senate minority leader, secured his party's nomination. All major forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's consistent partisan lean—evident in the incumbent's 66.5% win in 2024 and Kamala Harris's 17.5-point margin there. The district encompasses rural and suburban Oahu plus the neighbor islands, areas that have favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats aligns with these fundamentals and historical patterns for incumbents in non-competitive seats. A late scandal, health issue, or national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap before November 3, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's structural Democratic advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$63,531結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda, seeking a third term, advanced through the August 8, 2026 Democratic primary with over 91% of the vote against limited challengers, while Republican Brenton Awa, Hawaii State Senate minority leader, secured his party's nomination. All major forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's consistent partisan lean—evident in the incumbent's 66.5% win in 2024 and Kamala Harris's 17.5-point margin there. The district encompasses rural and suburban Oahu plus the neighbor islands, areas that have favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats aligns with these fundamentals and historical patterns for incumbents in non-competitive seats. A late scandal, health issue, or national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap before November 3, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's structural Democratic advantage.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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