Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured his party's nomination in the August 8 primary with 60% of the vote in Hawaii's 1st congressional district, a Honolulu-centered seat with a D+13 Partisan Voter Index. He faces Republican Adriel Lam in the November 3 general election. The district's consistent Democratic performance, including Case's 71.8% victory in 2024, combined with Hawaii's overall partisan alignment and limited Republican infrastructure, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% Democratic implied probability. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A significant shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major candidate scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district's structural lean within the remaining campaign window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$35,259 交易量
$35,259 交易量
2026-11-02
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
5%
$35,259 交易量
$35,259 交易量
2026-11-02
Democratic Party
$14,953 交易量
96%
Republican Party
$20,305 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured his party's nomination in the August 8 primary with 60% of the vote in Hawaii's 1st congressional district, a Honolulu-centered seat with a D+13 Partisan Voter Index. He faces Republican Adriel Lam in the November 3 general election. The district's consistent Democratic performance, including Case's 71.8% victory in 2024, combined with Hawaii's overall partisan alignment and limited Republican infrastructure, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% Democratic implied probability. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A significant shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major candidate scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district's structural lean within the remaining campaign window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$35,259結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured his party's nomination in the August 8 primary with 60% of the vote in Hawaii's 1st congressional district, a Honolulu-centered seat with a D+13 Partisan Voter Index. He faces Republican Adriel Lam in the November 3 general election. The district's consistent Democratic performance, including Case's 71.8% victory in 2024, combined with Hawaii's overall partisan alignment and limited Republican infrastructure, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% Democratic implied probability. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A significant shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major candidate scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district's structural lean within the remaining campaign window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$35,259結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Ed Case secured his party's nomination in the August 8 primary with 60% of the vote in Hawaii's 1st congressional district, a Honolulu-centered seat with a D+13 Partisan Voter Index. He faces Republican Adriel Lam in the November 3 general election. The district's consistent Democratic performance, including Case's 71.8% victory in 2024, combined with Hawaii's overall partisan alignment and limited Republican infrastructure, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% Democratic implied probability. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A significant shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major candidate scandal, health event, or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district's structural lean within the remaining campaign window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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