Incumbent Democratic Rep. Gwen Moore secured her party's nomination in the August 11, 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee Tim Rogers in the November general election for Wisconsin's 4th congressional district. The seat's deep Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of roughly D+26 and consistent performance in Milwaukee County and surrounding suburbs, underpins the market's overwhelming consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Moore's long tenure since 2005, combined with limited Republican fundraising and name recognition for the challenger, has kept the race rated Solid or Safe Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. Trader positioning aligns with these structural factors, though late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the margin before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$33,516 交易量
$33,516 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
98%
共和黨
2%
$33,516 交易量
$33,516 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
$12,352 交易量
98%
共和黨
$21,164 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Gwen Moore secured her party's nomination in the August 11, 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee Tim Rogers in the November general election for Wisconsin's 4th congressional district. The seat's deep Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of roughly D+26 and consistent performance in Milwaukee County and surrounding suburbs, underpins the market's overwhelming consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Moore's long tenure since 2005, combined with limited Republican fundraising and name recognition for the challenger, has kept the race rated Solid or Safe Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. Trader positioning aligns with these structural factors, though late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the margin before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$33,516結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Gwen Moore secured her party's nomination in the August 11, 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee Tim Rogers in the November general election for Wisconsin's 4th congressional district. The seat's deep Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of roughly D+26 and consistent performance in Milwaukee County and surrounding suburbs, underpins the market's overwhelming consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Moore's long tenure since 2005, combined with limited Republican fundraising and name recognition for the challenger, has kept the race rated Solid or Safe Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. Trader positioning aligns with these structural factors, though late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the margin before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$33,516結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Rep. Gwen Moore secured her party's nomination in the August 11, 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee Tim Rogers in the November general election for Wisconsin's 4th congressional district. The seat's deep Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of roughly D+26 and consistent performance in Milwaukee County and surrounding suburbs, underpins the market's overwhelming consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Moore's long tenure since 2005, combined with limited Republican fundraising and name recognition for the challenger, has kept the race rated Solid or Safe Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. Trader positioning aligns with these structural factors, though late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could theoretically narrow the margin before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions