Utah's 4th congressional district has shifted strongly Republican following court-ordered redistricting, creating a structural advantage that underpins the current market consensus. Incumbent Representative Mike Kennedy secured the GOP nomination unopposed after capturing nearly 80 percent of delegate support at the state convention, while Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen advances with minimal primary competition. Forecasters across multiple outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican based on consistent 30-point or larger GOP margins in recent voting. This positioning reflects the district's new boundaries encompassing more conservative western Utah counties. Only major late-cycle developments such as an unexpected scandal, significant national political shift, or unusually high Democratic turnout could realistically alter the outcome before the November 2026 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$15,038 交易量
$15,038 交易量
2026-11-03
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
9%
$15,038 交易量
$15,038 交易量
2026-11-03
Republican Party
$5,489 交易量
91%
Democratic Party
$9,549 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th congressional district has shifted strongly Republican following court-ordered redistricting, creating a structural advantage that underpins the current market consensus. Incumbent Representative Mike Kennedy secured the GOP nomination unopposed after capturing nearly 80 percent of delegate support at the state convention, while Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen advances with minimal primary competition. Forecasters across multiple outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican based on consistent 30-point or larger GOP margins in recent voting. This positioning reflects the district's new boundaries encompassing more conservative western Utah counties. Only major late-cycle developments such as an unexpected scandal, significant national political shift, or unusually high Democratic turnout could realistically alter the outcome before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$15,038結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th congressional district has shifted strongly Republican following court-ordered redistricting, creating a structural advantage that underpins the current market consensus. Incumbent Representative Mike Kennedy secured the GOP nomination unopposed after capturing nearly 80 percent of delegate support at the state convention, while Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen advances with minimal primary competition. Forecasters across multiple outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican based on consistent 30-point or larger GOP margins in recent voting. This positioning reflects the district's new boundaries encompassing more conservative western Utah counties. Only major late-cycle developments such as an unexpected scandal, significant national political shift, or unusually high Democratic turnout could realistically alter the outcome before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$15,038結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Utah's 4th congressional district has shifted strongly Republican following court-ordered redistricting, creating a structural advantage that underpins the current market consensus. Incumbent Representative Mike Kennedy secured the GOP nomination unopposed after capturing nearly 80 percent of delegate support at the state convention, while Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen advances with minimal primary competition. Forecasters across multiple outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican based on consistent 30-point or larger GOP margins in recent voting. This positioning reflects the district's new boundaries encompassing more conservative western Utah counties. Only major late-cycle developments such as an unexpected scandal, significant national political shift, or unusually high Democratic turnout could realistically alter the outcome before the November 2026 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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