Republicans enter the 2026 midterms holding a narrow House majority of roughly 218-220 seats following the 2024 results. Trader probabilities remain dispersed across seat ranges because the cycle features standard midterm headwinds for the president's party, a Democratic generic ballot lead averaging six to seven points, and a map with limited swing districts after recent redistricting. Cook Political Report ratings show dozens of competitive contests concentrated in battlegrounds, while forecasts from models such as the Economist and 270toWin project Democratic net gains sufficient to challenge or flip control. Primary season outcomes, open-seat retirements, and any shifts in national polling or approval ratings ahead of November could still widen or narrow the final seat distribution reflected in these contracts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於低於190 24%
190-194 15%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.8%
$286,361 交易量
$286,361 交易量
2026-11-03
低於190
24%
190-194
15%
195-199
12%
200-204
12%
205-209
11%
210-214
9%
215-219
7%
220-224
8%
225-229
8%
230+
4%
低於190 24%
190-194 15%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.8%
$286,361 交易量
$286,361 交易量
2026-11-03
低於190
$32,984 交易量
24%
190-194
$13,637 交易量
15%
195-199
$32,609 交易量
12%
200-204
$24,750 交易量
12%
205-209
$40,227 交易量
11%
210-214
$15,669 交易量
9%
215-219
$11,450 交易量
7%
220-224
$59,267 交易量
8%
225-229
$24,767 交易量
8%
230+
$31,001 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans enter the 2026 midterms holding a narrow House majority of roughly 218-220 seats following the 2024 results. Trader probabilities remain dispersed across seat ranges because the cycle features standard midterm headwinds for the president's party, a Democratic generic ballot lead averaging six to seven points, and a map with limited swing districts after recent redistricting. Cook Political Report ratings show dozens of competitive contests concentrated in battlegrounds, while forecasts from models such as the Economist and 270toWin project Democratic net gains sufficient to challenge or flip control. Primary season outcomes, open-seat retirements, and any shifts in national polling or approval ratings ahead of November could still widen or narrow the final seat distribution reflected in these contracts.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
交易量
$286,361結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans enter the 2026 midterms holding a narrow House majority of roughly 218-220 seats following the 2024 results. Trader probabilities remain dispersed across seat ranges because the cycle features standard midterm headwinds for the president's party, a Democratic generic ballot lead averaging six to seven points, and a map with limited swing districts after recent redistricting. Cook Political Report ratings show dozens of competitive contests concentrated in battlegrounds, while forecasts from models such as the Economist and 270toWin project Democratic net gains sufficient to challenge or flip control. Primary season outcomes, open-seat retirements, and any shifts in national polling or approval ratings ahead of November could still widen or narrow the final seat distribution reflected in these contracts.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$286,361結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republicans enter the 2026 midterms holding a narrow House majority of roughly 218-220 seats following the 2024 results. Trader probabilities remain dispersed across seat ranges because the cycle features standard midterm headwinds for the president's party, a Democratic generic ballot lead averaging six to seven points, and a map with limited swing districts after recent redistricting. Cook Political Report ratings show dozens of competitive contests concentrated in battlegrounds, while forecasts from models such as the Economist and 270toWin project Democratic net gains sufficient to challenge or flip control. Primary season outcomes, open-seat retirements, and any shifts in national polling or approval ratings ahead of November could still widen or narrow the final seat distribution reflected in these contracts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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