Trader consensus on Republican House seats after the 2026 midterms shows a dispersed probability distribution, with no single range exceeding 24 percent. This tightness arises from the historical midterm penalty for the president's party, ongoing shifts in national polling averages, and economic indicators that influence voter sentiment in swing districts. Factors such as candidate recruitment, redistricting effects, and turnout patterns among key voting blocs keep multiple outcomes competitive. Scheduled events including late-cycle polling releases, primary results, and legislative actions could create separation by clarifying issue salience and performance in battleground areas.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於低於190 24%
200-204 15.8%
190-194 14%
195-199 14%
$289,885 交易量
$289,885 交易量
2026-11-02
低於190
24%
190-194
14%
195-199
14%
200-204
16%
205-209
13%
210-214
9%
215-219
5%
220-224
3%
225-229
6%
230+
3%
低於190 24%
200-204 15.8%
190-194 14%
195-199 14%
$289,885 交易量
$289,885 交易量
2026-11-02
低於190
$35,765 交易量
24%
190-194
$13,814 交易量
14%
195-199
$32,644 交易量
14%
200-204
$24,908 交易量
16%
205-209
$40,470 交易量
13%
210-214
$15,786 交易量
9%
215-219
$11,463 交易量
5%
220-224
$59,267 交易量
3%
225-229
$24,767 交易量
6%
230+
$31,001 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Republican House seats after the 2026 midterms shows a dispersed probability distribution, with no single range exceeding 24 percent. This tightness arises from the historical midterm penalty for the president's party, ongoing shifts in national polling averages, and economic indicators that influence voter sentiment in swing districts. Factors such as candidate recruitment, redistricting effects, and turnout patterns among key voting blocs keep multiple outcomes competitive. Scheduled events including late-cycle polling releases, primary results, and legislative actions could create separation by clarifying issue salience and performance in battleground areas.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
交易量
$289,885結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Republican House seats after the 2026 midterms shows a dispersed probability distribution, with no single range exceeding 24 percent. This tightness arises from the historical midterm penalty for the president's party, ongoing shifts in national polling averages, and economic indicators that influence voter sentiment in swing districts. Factors such as candidate recruitment, redistricting effects, and turnout patterns among key voting blocs keep multiple outcomes competitive. Scheduled events including late-cycle polling releases, primary results, and legislative actions could create separation by clarifying issue salience and performance in battleground areas.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$289,885結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETTrader consensus on Republican House seats after the 2026 midterms shows a dispersed probability distribution, with no single range exceeding 24 percent. This tightness arises from the historical midterm penalty for the president's party, ongoing shifts in national polling averages, and economic indicators that influence voter sentiment in swing districts. Factors such as candidate recruitment, redistricting effects, and turnout patterns among key voting blocs keep multiple outcomes competitive. Scheduled events including late-cycle polling releases, primary results, and legislative actions could create separation by clarifying issue salience and performance in battleground areas.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions