Recent developments in the 2026 midterm cycle point to structural headwinds for Republicans holding the House. Polling shows Democrats maintaining a modest generic-ballot advantage, consistent with the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Redistricting changes in states including Virginia have shifted multiple districts toward Democrats, while a record number of Republican retirements—over 35 open seats—has created additional vulnerabilities. Fundraising data and early candidate recruitment further tilt competitive races in Democrats' favor. These factors have consolidated trader views around net Republican losses, with the highest probability assigned to outcomes below 200 seats and diminishing odds for retaining or expanding the current slim majority.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於低於190 27%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
190-194 12%
$234,520 交易量
$234,520 交易量
2026-11-03
低於190
27%
190-194
12%
195-199
12%
200-204
12%
205-209
10%
210-214
10%
215-219
11%
220-224
9%
225-229
3%
230+
2%
低於190 27%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
190-194 12%
$234,520 交易量
$234,520 交易量
2026-11-03
低於190
$17,575 交易量
27%
190-194
$8,513 交易量
12%
195-199
$28,129 交易量
12%
200-204
$22,115 交易量
12%
205-209
$35,376 交易量
10%
210-214
$12,831 交易量
10%
215-219
$8,059 交易量
11%
220-224
$53,714 交易量
9%
225-229
$21,391 交易量
3%
230+
$26,816 交易量
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Recent developments in the 2026 midterm cycle point to structural headwinds for Republicans holding the House. Polling shows Democrats maintaining a modest generic-ballot advantage, consistent with the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Redistricting changes in states including Virginia have shifted multiple districts toward Democrats, while a record number of Republican retirements—over 35 open seats—has created additional vulnerabilities. Fundraising data and early candidate recruitment further tilt competitive races in Democrats' favor. These factors have consolidated trader views around net Republican losses, with the highest probability assigned to outcomes below 200 seats and diminishing odds for retaining or expanding the current slim majority.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
交易量
$234,520結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Recent developments in the 2026 midterm cycle point to structural headwinds for Republicans holding the House. Polling shows Democrats maintaining a modest generic-ballot advantage, consistent with the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Redistricting changes in states including Virginia have shifted multiple districts toward Democrats, while a record number of Republican retirements—over 35 open seats—has created additional vulnerabilities. Fundraising data and early candidate recruitment further tilt competitive races in Democrats' favor. These factors have consolidated trader views around net Republican losses, with the highest probability assigned to outcomes below 200 seats and diminishing odds for retaining or expanding the current slim majority.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$234,520結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent developments in the 2026 midterm cycle point to structural headwinds for Republicans holding the House. Polling shows Democrats maintaining a modest generic-ballot advantage, consistent with the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Redistricting changes in states including Virginia have shifted multiple districts toward Democrats, while a record number of Republican retirements—over 35 open seats—has created additional vulnerabilities. Fundraising data and early candidate recruitment further tilt competitive races in Democrats' favor. These factors have consolidated trader views around net Republican losses, with the highest probability assigned to outcomes below 200 seats and diminishing odds for retaining or expanding the current slim majority.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions