How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?

6–7 45%

8–9 45%

2–3 45%

4–5 45%

最新

2026-08-04

0–1

$0 交易量

45%

2–3

$0 交易量

45%

4–5

$0 交易量

45%

6–7

$0 交易量

45%

8–9

$0 交易量

45%

10+

$0 交易量

45%

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is a major, bipartisan American lobbying group that advocates for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and has endorsed candidates in the upcoming US Congressional primaries. This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed. This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant. The candidates and races are: Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10). The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "6–7" at 46%, followed by "8–9" at 46%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

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The current frontrunner for "How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?" is "6–7" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "8–9" at 46%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

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On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 46¢ for "6–7" in the "How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 46% chance that "6–7" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 46¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 54¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Aug 4, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

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How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?

How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?

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