Multiple Senate contests remain tightly matched ahead of the 2026 midterms, with Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Alaska, and Maine emerging as frontrunners for the narrowest margin. Recent polling shows single-digit spreads in these states, driven by open Republican seats in Iowa, competitive primaries in Texas, and strong Democratic challengers such as former Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Representative Mary Peltola in Alaska facing appointed or incumbent Republicans. Maine’s race features an established incumbent against a rising Democratic opponent, while special election dynamics in Ohio add uncertainty. These factors, combined with shifting national conditions, sustain trader consensus on several plausible outcomes without a clear separation among the leaders.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Iowa 18.8%
Texas 19%
Ohio (Special) 14.8%
Alaska 12%
$28,746 交易量
$28,746 交易量
2026-11-03
Iowa
19%
Texas
19%
Ohio (Special)
15%
Alaska
12%
Maine
11%
Michigan
6%
Nebraska
5%
Florida (Special)
3%
New Mexico
3%
Virginia
2%
North Carolina
2%
New Hampshire
1%
Georgia
1%
Minnesota
1%
Colorado
1%
Montana
<1%
Iowa 18.8%
Texas 19%
Ohio (Special) 14.8%
Alaska 12%
$28,746 交易量
$28,746 交易量
2026-11-03
Iowa
$2,736 交易量
19%
Texas
$1,477 交易量
19%
Ohio (Special)
$5,090 交易量
15%
Alaska
$5,281 交易量
12%
Maine
$1,285 交易量
11%
Michigan
$2,490 交易量
6%
Nebraska
$275 交易量
5%
Florida (Special)
$253 交易量
3%
New Mexico
$160 交易量
3%
Virginia
$5,073 交易量
2%
North Carolina
$621 交易量
2%
New Hampshire
$485 交易量
1%
Georgia
$752 交易量
1%
Minnesota
$1,489 交易量
1%
Colorado
$662 交易量
1%
Montana
$616 交易量
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple Senate contests remain tightly matched ahead of the 2026 midterms, with Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Alaska, and Maine emerging as frontrunners for the narrowest margin. Recent polling shows single-digit spreads in these states, driven by open Republican seats in Iowa, competitive primaries in Texas, and strong Democratic challengers such as former Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Representative Mary Peltola in Alaska facing appointed or incumbent Republicans. Maine’s race features an established incumbent against a rising Democratic opponent, while special election dynamics in Ohio add uncertainty. These factors, combined with shifting national conditions, sustain trader consensus on several plausible outcomes without a clear separation among the leaders.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
交易量
$28,746結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple Senate contests remain tightly matched ahead of the 2026 midterms, with Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Alaska, and Maine emerging as frontrunners for the narrowest margin. Recent polling shows single-digit spreads in these states, driven by open Republican seats in Iowa, competitive primaries in Texas, and strong Democratic challengers such as former Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Representative Mary Peltola in Alaska facing appointed or incumbent Republicans. Maine’s race features an established incumbent against a rising Democratic opponent, while special election dynamics in Ohio add uncertainty. These factors, combined with shifting national conditions, sustain trader consensus on several plausible outcomes without a clear separation among the leaders.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$28,746結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Multiple Senate contests remain tightly matched ahead of the 2026 midterms, with Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Alaska, and Maine emerging as frontrunners for the narrowest margin. Recent polling shows single-digit spreads in these states, driven by open Republican seats in Iowa, competitive primaries in Texas, and strong Democratic challengers such as former Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Representative Mary Peltola in Alaska facing appointed or incumbent Republicans. Maine’s race features an established incumbent against a rising Democratic opponent, while special election dynamics in Ohio add uncertainty. These factors, combined with shifting national conditions, sustain trader consensus on several plausible outcomes without a clear separation among the leaders.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions