Recent August labor market data, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% and nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000—well above consensus—anchors trader expectations for the September reading near current levels. Stronger-than-expected job gains, rising labor force participation to 61.6%, and subdued layoffs point to resilience in a low-hire, low-fire environment, while wage growth moderated to 3.1% year-over-year. Market-implied odds cluster tightly between 4.1% and 4.2% as participants weigh these dynamics against persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, which has elevated prospects for policy tightening at the September FOMC meeting. The next Employment Situation release on October 2 will resolve the market, with upcoming CPI data and any revisions to prior months serving as key swing factors in the narrow probability distribution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4.1% 39%
4.2% 26%
4.0% 16%
4.3% 11%
最新
最新
2026-10-02
小於或等於3.8%
5%
3.9%
5%
4.0%
16%
4.1%
39%
4.2%
26%
4.3%
11%
4.4%
5%
4.5%
9%
大於等於4.6%
4%
4.1% 39%
4.2% 26%
4.0% 16%
4.3% 11%
最新
最新
2026-10-02
小於或等於3.8%
$585 交易量
5%
3.9%
$105 交易量
5%
4.0%
$62 交易量
16%
4.1%
$491 交易量
39%
4.2%
$84 交易量
26%
4.3%
$62 交易量
11%
4.4%
$176 交易量
5%
4.5%
$505 交易量
9%
大於等於4.6%
$505 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August labor market data, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% and nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000—well above consensus—anchors trader expectations for the September reading near current levels. Stronger-than-expected job gains, rising labor force participation to 61.6%, and subdued layoffs point to resilience in a low-hire, low-fire environment, while wage growth moderated to 3.1% year-over-year. Market-implied odds cluster tightly between 4.1% and 4.2% as participants weigh these dynamics against persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, which has elevated prospects for policy tightening at the September FOMC meeting. The next Employment Situation release on October 2 will resolve the market, with upcoming CPI data and any revisions to prior months serving as key swing factors in the narrow probability distribution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市場開放時間： Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
交易量
$2,576結束日期
2026-10-02市場開放時間
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August labor market data, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% and nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000—well above consensus—anchors trader expectations for the September reading near current levels. Stronger-than-expected job gains, rising labor force participation to 61.6%, and subdued layoffs point to resilience in a low-hire, low-fire environment, while wage growth moderated to 3.1% year-over-year. Market-implied odds cluster tightly between 4.1% and 4.2% as participants weigh these dynamics against persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, which has elevated prospects for policy tightening at the September FOMC meeting. The next Employment Situation release on October 2 will resolve the market, with upcoming CPI data and any revisions to prior months serving as key swing factors in the narrow probability distribution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$2,576結束日期
2026-10-02市場開放時間
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETRecent August labor market data, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% and nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000—well above consensus—anchors trader expectations for the September reading near current levels. Stronger-than-expected job gains, rising labor force participation to 61.6%, and subdued layoffs point to resilience in a low-hire, low-fire environment, while wage growth moderated to 3.1% year-over-year. Market-implied odds cluster tightly between 4.1% and 4.2% as participants weigh these dynamics against persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, which has elevated prospects for policy tightening at the September FOMC meeting. The next Employment Situation release on October 2 will resolve the market, with upcoming CPI data and any revisions to prior months serving as key swing factors in the narrow probability distribution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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