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科技·AWS

Services Down Parlay

icon for Services Down Parlay
科技·AWS

Services Down Parlay

是

2% 機率
Polymarket

$14,339 交易量

是

2% 機率
Polymarket

$14,339 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - AWS service disrupted - Critical Discord Incident - Critical Cloudflare incident Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.4% implied probability to "No" for the Services Down Parlay, driven by the March 31, 2026, deadline expiring without all required conditions met: no simultaneous AWS "disrupted" severity event on its Health Dashboard, Critical (red) Discord incident, and resolved Critical Cloudflare incident. While AWS experienced a thermal-event outage in early May and Discord reported API errors on May 8—both post-deadline and non-qualifying—neither provider nor Cloudflare logged qualifying pre-deadline disruptions across the board, underscoring the rarity of correlated failures in independent cloud infrastructures. Realistic upset risks remain slim, limited to retroactive severity reclassifications or oracle disputes, with resolution imminent upon confirmation.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
交易量
$14,339
結束日期
2026-03-31
市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - AWS service disrupted - Critical Discord Incident - Critical Cloudflare incident Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - AWS service disrupted - Critical Discord Incident - Critical Cloudflare incident Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.4% implied probability to "No" for the Services Down Parlay, driven by the March 31, 2026, deadline expiring without all required conditions met: no simultaneous AWS "disrupted" severity event on its Health Dashboard, Critical (red) Discord incident, and resolved Critical Cloudflare incident. While AWS experienced a thermal-event outage in early May and Discord reported API errors on May 8—both post-deadline and non-qualifying—neither provider nor Cloudflare logged qualifying pre-deadline disruptions across the board, underscoring the rarity of correlated failures in independent cloud infrastructures. Realistic upset risks remain slim, limited to retroactive severity reclassifications or oracle disputes, with resolution imminent upon confirmation.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
交易量
$14,339
結束日期
2026-03-31
市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - AWS service disrupted - Critical Discord Incident - Critical Cloudflare incident Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Services Down Parlay" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "服務中斷連串投注" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 2¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 2% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Services Down Parlay" has generated $14.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Services Down Parlay," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Services Down Parlay" is "服務中斷連串投注" at just 2%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Services Down Parlay" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.