Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward "No" disruption at 55% implied probability for AWS avoiding a "disrupted" severity event by June 30, driven by the rapid containment of the May 7 US-East-1 outage—a thermal event in one availability zone (use1-az4) that impaired EC2 instances and EBS volumes but was mitigated via traffic shifting to unaffected zones, resolving in under 48 hours without triggering the critical "disrupted" classification on the AWS Health Dashboard. This underscores AWS's multi-availability zone redundancy amid hyperscale demands. Ongoing Middle East regional disruptions from March drone strikes persist as "disrupted" but predate the market's focus. Key swing factors include summer heat risking cooling failures or Forrester-predicted AI data center outages, with AWS re:Inforce potentially revealing resilience upgrades.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-06-30
最新
最新
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward "No" disruption at 55% implied probability for AWS avoiding a "disrupted" severity event by June 30, driven by the rapid containment of the May 7 US-East-1 outage—a thermal event in one availability zone (use1-az4) that impaired EC2 instances and EBS volumes but was mitigated via traffic shifting to unaffected zones, resolving in under 48 hours without triggering the critical "disrupted" classification on the AWS Health Dashboard. This underscores AWS's multi-availability zone redundancy amid hyperscale demands. Ongoing Middle East regional disruptions from March drone strikes persist as "disrupted" but predate the market's focus. Key swing factors include summer heat risking cooling failures or Forrester-predicted AI data center outages, with AWS re:Inforce potentially revealing resilience upgrades.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
市場開放時間： Apr 30, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
交易量
$5,203結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Apr 30, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward "No" disruption at 55% implied probability for AWS avoiding a "disrupted" severity event by June 30, driven by the rapid containment of the May 7 US-East-1 outage—a thermal event in one availability zone (use1-az4) that impaired EC2 instances and EBS volumes but was mitigated via traffic shifting to unaffected zones, resolving in under 48 hours without triggering the critical "disrupted" classification on the AWS Health Dashboard. This underscores AWS's multi-availability zone redundancy amid hyperscale demands. Ongoing Middle East regional disruptions from March drone strikes persist as "disrupted" but predate the market's focus. Key swing factors include summer heat risking cooling failures or Forrester-predicted AI data center outages, with AWS re:Inforce potentially revealing resilience upgrades.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
交易量
$5,203結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Apr 30, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward "No" disruption at 55% implied probability for AWS avoiding a "disrupted" severity event by June 30, driven by the rapid containment of the May 7 US-East-1 outage—a thermal event in one availability zone (use1-az4) that impaired EC2 instances and EBS volumes but was mitigated via traffic shifting to unaffected zones, resolving in under 48 hours without triggering the critical "disrupted" classification on the AWS Health Dashboard. This underscores AWS's multi-availability zone redundancy amid hyperscale demands. Ongoing Middle East regional disruptions from March drone strikes persist as "disrupted" but predate the market's focus. Key swing factors include summer heat risking cooling failures or Forrester-predicted AI data center outages, with AWS re:Inforce potentially revealing resilience upgrades.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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