Elon Musk's July announcements have anchored trader sentiment around an accelerated xAI release cadence, with Grok 4.6 positioned as a 1.5-trillion-parameter update featuring refined supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning on the existing V9 base rather than a full scale jump. Following Grok 4.5's mid-July launch and strong benchmark showings in coding and agentic tasks, Musk publicly targeted August 7 for 4.6 availability on grok.com, X, and APIs, followed weeks later by the larger 2.1T Grok 4.7. This compressed two-to-three-week cycle reflects internal engineering reorganization amid competition from models like Claude Opus and Kimi K3. Traders are watching for official model catalog updates or API access on the targeted date, as any slippage from training completion or deployment could shift implied probabilities on near-term resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
$36,159 交易量
2026-08-07
8 月 7 日
8%
8 月 14 日
86%
$36,159 交易量
8 月 7 日
$21,166 交易量
8%
8 月 14 日
$14,993 交易量
86%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk's July announcements have anchored trader sentiment around an accelerated xAI release cadence, with Grok 4.6 positioned as a 1.5-trillion-parameter update featuring refined supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning on the existing V9 base rather than a full scale jump. Following Grok 4.5's mid-July launch and strong benchmark showings in coding and agentic tasks, Musk publicly targeted August 7 for 4.6 availability on grok.com, X, and APIs, followed weeks later by the larger 2.1T Grok 4.7. This compressed two-to-three-week cycle reflects internal engineering reorganization amid competition from models like Claude Opus and Kimi K3. Traders are watching for official model catalog updates or API access on the targeted date, as any slippage from training completion or deployment could shift implied probabilities on near-term resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
交易量
$36,159結束日期
2026-08-14市場開放時間
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk's July announcements have anchored trader sentiment around an accelerated xAI release cadence, with Grok 4.6 positioned as a 1.5-trillion-parameter update featuring refined supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning on the existing V9 base rather than a full scale jump. Following Grok 4.5's mid-July launch and strong benchmark showings in coding and agentic tasks, Musk publicly targeted August 7 for 4.6 availability on grok.com, X, and APIs, followed weeks later by the larger 2.1T Grok 4.7. This compressed two-to-three-week cycle reflects internal engineering reorganization amid competition from models like Claude Opus and Kimi K3. Traders are watching for official model catalog updates or API access on the targeted date, as any slippage from training completion or deployment could shift implied probabilities on near-term resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$36,159結束日期
2026-08-14市場開放時間
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elon Musk's July announcements have anchored trader sentiment around an accelerated xAI release cadence, with Grok 4.6 positioned as a 1.5-trillion-parameter update featuring refined supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning on the existing V9 base rather than a full scale jump. Following Grok 4.5's mid-July launch and strong benchmark showings in coding and agentic tasks, Musk publicly targeted August 7 for 4.6 availability on grok.com, X, and APIs, followed weeks later by the larger 2.1T Grok 4.7. This compressed two-to-three-week cycle reflects internal engineering reorganization amid competition from models like Claude Opus and Kimi K3. Traders are watching for official model catalog updates or API access on the targeted date, as any slippage from training completion or deployment could shift implied probabilities on near-term resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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